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Laryea, R., Carling, K. & Cialani, C. (2018). A Food Price Volatility Model for Country Risk Classification. International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A Food Price Volatility Model for Country Risk Classification
2018 (English)In: International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, ISSN 1466-8297, E-ISSN 1741-5241Article in journal (Refereed) Submitted
Abstract [en]

Decision makers require risk models which satisfies their preferences in decision making processes. A methodological approach to presenting a decision model that satisfies the preferences of the decision maker and aids the decision maker to classify countries into crisis groups based on the price volatility of food staple criteria is discussed in this paper. The price volatility of food staples is obtained from time series plots and a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis method, the UTilitdditives DIScriminantes (UTADIS) classification methodological framework is applied on the price volatility data to develop a food price volatility classification model which suits the decision maker’s preferences. The methodological framework is better applied in this paper by aiding the decision maker to make informed judgements on the price volatility of food staples in predefining their risk classes. This introduces efficiency in the application of the methodological classification framework, by reducing to the barest minimum level, the misclassification errors between the decision makers preferred classification and the UTADIS method’s classification which estimates the utility function or classification model and the utility threshold or cut-off points which would classify the country alternatives into their authentic or original classes with the execution of the methodological framework just once. The resulting utility function or classification model is thus accurate enough to satisfy the preferences of the decision maker in classifying future datasets.

National Category
Economics and Business
Research subject
Complex Systems – Microdata Analysis
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:du-28646 (URN)
Available from: 2018-10-01 Created: 2018-10-01 Last updated: 2018-10-01Bibliographically approved
Cialani, C. & Mortazavi, R. (2018). Household and industrial electricity demand in Europe. Energy Policy, 122, 592-600
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Household and industrial electricity demand in Europe
2018 (English)In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 122, p. 592-600Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper examines the electricity demand, and its determinants, in 29 European countries during the liberalization of the electricity market. Based on panel data for these countries for the years 1995–2015 and using a dynamic partial adjustment model, price elasticities are estimated for both residential and industrial electricity demand. These elasticities and effects of other variables on electricity consumption are estimated using both GMM (generalized method of moments) and ML (maximum likelihood) approaches. It is found that the price elasticities are very small, especially in the short run, while the income elasticities are relatively large, especially for households and in the long run.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2018
Keywords
Electricity demand, Price elasticity, Europe EU-29, GMM, ML
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Complex Systems – Microdata Analysis
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:du-28385 (URN)10.1016/j.enpol.2018.07.060 (DOI)000447576700055 ()2-s2.0-85051807312 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2018-08-22 Created: 2018-08-22 Last updated: 2018-11-01Bibliographically approved
Laryea, R., Carling, K., Cialani, C. & Nyberg, R. G. (2018). Sensitivity analysis of a risk classification model for food price volatility. International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, 21(4), 374-382
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Sensitivity analysis of a risk classification model for food price volatility
2018 (English)In: International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, ISSN 1466-8297, E-ISSN 1741-5241, Vol. 21, no 4, p. 374-382Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A sensitivity analysis to vary the weights of an accurate predictive classification model to produce a mixed model for ranking countries on the risk of food price volatility is carried out in this paper. The classification model is a marginal utility function consisting of multiple criteria. The aim of the sensitivity analysis is to derive a mixed model to be used in ranking of country alternatives to aid in policy formulation. Since in real-life situations the data that goes into decision making could be subjected to possibilities of alterations over time, it is essential to aid decision makers to vary the weights of the criteria using both subjective and objective information to introduce imprecision and to generate relative values of the criteria with a scale to form a mixed model. The mixed model can be used to rank future relative alternative value data sets for policy formulation.

Keywords
risk; sensitivity analysis; multiple criteria; weights; decision maker; classification model; imprecision; uncertainty; data; price volatility
National Category
Economics and Business Probability Theory and Statistics
Research subject
Complex Systems – Microdata Analysis
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:du-28647 (URN)2-s2.0-85055889650 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2018-10-01 Created: 2018-10-01 Last updated: 2018-11-12Bibliographically approved
Cialani, C. (2017). CO2 emissions, GDP and trade: a panel cointegration approach. International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology, 24(3), 193-204
Open this publication in new window or tab >>CO2 emissions, GDP and trade: a panel cointegration approach
2017 (English)In: International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology, ISSN 1350-4509, E-ISSN 1745-2627, Vol. 24, no 3, p. 193-204Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper examines the relationships among per capita CO2 emissions, per capita GDP and international trade based on panel data spanning the period 1960–2008 for 150 countries. A distinction is also made between OECD and non-OECD countries to capture the differences of this relationship between developed and developing economies. We apply panel unit root and cointegration tests and estimate a panel error correction model. The results from the error correction model suggest that there are long-term relationships between the variables for the whole sample and for non-OECD countries. Finally, Granger causality tests show that there is bidirectional short-term causality between per capita GDP and international trade for the whole sample and between per capita GDP and CO2 emissions for OECD countries.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Taylor & Francis, 2017
Keywords
CO2 emissions, GDP, international trade, panel data, panel ECM
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Complex Systems – Microdata Analysis
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:du-21698 (URN)10.1080/13504509.2016.1196253 (DOI)000399671900001 ()
Available from: 2016-06-14 Created: 2016-06-14 Last updated: 2017-05-18Bibliographically approved
Cialani, C. & Mortazavi, R. (2017). Econometric Estimation of Energy Demand. In: Sergio Ulgiati and Laura Vanoli (Ed.), Energy futures, environment and well-being: . Paper presented at BIWAES 2017, 10th Edition, Biennial International Workshop “Advances in Energy Studies” Villa Doria d´Angri, Naples, Italy, 25-28 September, 2017 (pp. 547-556).
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Econometric Estimation of Energy Demand
2017 (English)In: Energy futures, environment and well-being / [ed] Sergio Ulgiati and Laura Vanoli, 2017, p. 547-556Conference paper, Published paper (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This paper presents a relatively simple procedure to examine the responsiveness of energy demand to measures of economic activity and electricity price. We estimate the demand function for electricity both for households and for industry in 29 countries, mainly European countries, in the last 10 years, using a panel aggregate data.

Preliminary results suggest, as expected, that price has a negative significant effect on the electricity consumption. This is the case for both households and industry level for the same sample of countries. Our results also suggest that short-run elasticity of electricity consumption with respect to aggregate output seems to have been stable and unit elastic during the last decade. Moreover, price elasticity is more elastic and more stable in the industry sector than households are.

National Category
Economics
Research subject
Complex Systems – Microdata Analysis
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:du-26573 (URN)10.3217/978-3-85125-513-3 (DOI)978-3-85125-513-3 (ISBN)978-3-85125-514-0 (ISBN)
Conference
BIWAES 2017, 10th Edition, Biennial International Workshop “Advances in Energy Studies” Villa Doria d´Angri, Naples, Italy, 25-28 September, 2017
Available from: 2017-11-20 Created: 2017-11-20 Last updated: 2017-11-21Bibliographically approved
Mortazavi, R. & Cialani, C. (2017). International tourists’ length of overnight stay in Venice. Tourism Economics, 23(4), 882-889
Open this publication in new window or tab >>International tourists’ length of overnight stay in Venice
2017 (English)In: Tourism Economics, ISSN 1354-8166, E-ISSN 2044-0375, Vol. 23, no 4, p. 882-889Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This study concerns factors influencing international tourists’ length of overnight stay in Venice. The data are from a survey conducted by the Bank of Italy on international tourism. Both zero-truncated negative binomial (ZTNB) and ordinary least squares (OLS) regressions are estimated. In general, the estimates from ZTNB and OLS regressions are similar. The results suggest that age, returning directly to the country of residence and the summer season have a positive influence on the length of stay. On the other hand, international tourist expenditure and visiting other places than Venice have a negative impact on the length of stay. Moreover, the average length of overnight stays differs among nationalities and those who have visited Venice previously tend, on average, to stay longer. One finding is that visitors from North America and Australia stay longer and spend more than visitors coming from neighbouring countries.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
London: , 2017
Keywords
Venice; Length of overnight stay; Zero-truncated negative binomial regression; OLS regression
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Complex Systems – Microdata Analysis
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:du-21293 (URN)10.5367/te.2016.0556 (DOI)000402065000013 ()
Available from: 2016-03-29 Created: 2016-03-29 Last updated: 2017-06-15Bibliographically approved
Cialani, C. (2017). Navigare. In: Pagine S.r.L. (Ed.), Navigare 75: (pp. 7-7). Rome, Italy: Pagine S.r.L.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Navigare
2017 (Italian)In: Navigare 75 / [ed] Pagine S.r.L., Rome, Italy: Pagine S.r.L. , 2017, p. 7-7Chapter in book (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
Abstract [it]

Per Navigare servono coordinate geografiche, abilità, esperienza e una certa dose di coraggio. Non così differente è il mestiere del poeta; un autore deve infatti essere in grado di affrontare ed evidenziare, attraverso la sua scrittura, la gioia e il dolore del vivere. Arduo dunque è il suo compito. Tra burrasche indomabili e mostri mitologici, come ci insegna la letteratura, ogni navigante vorrebbe scrutare col suo sguardo l’orizzonte per gridare: «Terra!», sia essa il sinonimo geografico di un nuovo luogo da scoprire, sia essa il sinonimo visivo di un insperato quanto voluto ritorno a casa. A ogni autore presente nella collana è stato chiesto di scavalcare le proprie astratte colonne d’Ercole per tracciare un personale diario di bordo poetico, un metodo per definire i pensieri più intimi e i vissuti più reconditi; un modo per esporre il proprio mare dentro, affinché si possa essere degli Ulisse nel e del mondo contemporaneo.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Rome, Italy: Pagine S.r.L., 2017
National Category
Literary Composition
Research subject
Complex Systems – Microdata Analysis
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:du-24673 (URN)9788869677465 (ISBN)
Note

List of poems by Catia Cialani:

L’Amicizia; Roma; Verità; È finita; Amore; Pane; Pace nel mondo.

In English: The Friendship; Rome; Truth; It is over; Love; Bread; Peace in the world.

Available from: 2017-04-01 Created: 2017-04-01 Last updated: 2017-04-03Bibliographically approved
Ghisellini, P., Cialani, C. & Ulgiati, S. (2016). A review on circular economy: the expected transition to a balanced interplay of environmental and economic systems. Journal of Cleaner Production, 114, 11-32
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A review on circular economy: the expected transition to a balanced interplay of environmental and economic systems
2016 (English)In: Journal of Cleaner Production, ISSN 0959-6526, E-ISSN 1879-1786, Vol. 114, p. 11-32Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In the last few years Circular Economy (CE) is receiving increasing attention worldwide as a way to overcome the current production and consumption model based on continuous growth and increasing resource throughput. By promoting the adoption of closing-the-loop production patterns within an economic system CE aims to increase the efficiency of resource use, with special focus on urban and industrial waste, to achieve a better balance and harmony between economy, environment and society. This study provides an extensive review of the literature of last two decades, with the purpose of grasping the main CE features and perspectives: origins, basic principles, advantages and disadvantages, modelling and implementation of CE at the different levels (micro, meso and macro) worldwide.

Results evidence that CE origins are mainly rooted in ecological and environmental economics and industrial ecology. In China CE is promoted as a top-down national political objective while in other areas and countries as European Union, Japan and USA it is a tool to design bottom-up environmental and waste management policies. The ultimate goal of promoting CE is the decoupling of environmental pressure from economic growth. The implementation of CE worldwide still seems in the early stages, mainly focused on recycle rather than reuse. Important results have been achieved in some activity sectors (e.g. in waste management, where large waste recycling rates are achieved in selected developed countries). CE implies the adoption of cleaner production patterns at company level, an increase of producers and consumers responsibility and awareness, the use of renewable technologies and materials (wherever possible) as well as the adoption of suitable, clear and stable policies and tools. The lesson learned from successful experiences is that the transition towards CE comes from the involvement of all actors of the society and their capacity to link and create suitable collaboration and exchange patterns. Success stories also point out the need for an economic return on investment, in order to provide suitable motivation to companies and investors. In summary, the CE transition has just started. Moreover, the interdisciplinary framework underpinning CE offers good prospects for gradual improvement of the present production and consumption models, no longer adequate because of their environmental load and social inequity, a clear indicator of resource use inefficiency

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2016
Keywords
Circular economy, Resource efficiency, Reuse, Recycling, Zero waste, Sustainability
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Complex Systems – Microdata Analysis
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:du-20275 (URN)10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.09.007 (DOI)000384626400002 ()
Available from: 2015-11-19 Created: 2015-11-19 Last updated: 2017-12-01Bibliographically approved
Poppi, S., Bales, C., Heinz, A., Hengel, F., Cheze, D., Mojic, I. & Cialani, C. (2016). Analysis of system improvements in solar thermal and air source heat pump combisystems. Applied Energy, 173, 606-623
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Analysis of system improvements in solar thermal and air source heat pump combisystems
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2016 (English)In: Applied Energy, ISSN 0306-2619, E-ISSN 1872-9118, Vol. 173, p. 606-623Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A solar thermal and heat pump combisystem is one of many system alternatives on the market for supplying domestic hot water (DHW) and space heating (SH) in dwellings. In this study a reference solar thermal and air source heat pump combisystem was defined and modelled based on products available on the market. Based on the results of an extensive literature survey, several system variations were investigated to show the influence of heat pump cycle, thermal storage and system integration on the use of electricity for two houses in the climates of Zurich and Carcassonne. A singular economic cash flow analysis was carried out and the “additional investment limit” of each system variation was determined for a range of economic boundary conditions. This is the maximum extra investment cost for the system variant compared to the reference system that will give a break even result for a 10 year period. The results show that variations in electricity price affects the additional investment limit far more than the other economic parameters. Several of the variants show potential for achieving a cost benefit, but the potential varies a lot depending on load and climate boundary conditions. For all variants, the biggest difference in electricity savings was found for Zurich rather than in Carcassonne, which is explained by the larger heating load. However, in three cases the largest savings were for the SFH45 house despite the fact that the annual electricity use of the system is much lower than that for the SFH100 house, 3581 kW h/year compared to 8340 kW h/year. This was attributed to the fact that, in these cases, the operating level of the space heating circuit played a significant role, the SFH45 house being supplied with a 35/30 °C heating system while the SFH100 was supplied with a 55/45 °C heating system.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2016
Keywords
Solar combisystem; Heat pump cycle; Thermal storage; Hydraulics
National Category
Energy Systems
Research subject
Energy, Forests and Built Environments, MacSheep
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:du-21378 (URN)10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.04.048 (DOI)000377235200050 ()
Funder
EU, FP7, Seventh Framework Programme
Available from: 2016-04-22 Created: 2016-04-22 Last updated: 2017-11-30Bibliographically approved
Mortazavi, R. & Cialani, C. (2015). Factors Influencing International Tourists' Length Of Overnight Stay In Venice. In: : . Paper presented at The 5th Conference of the International Association for Tourism Economics, 2015, 30 June- 3 July, 2015 Hong Kong SAR, China.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Factors Influencing International Tourists' Length Of Overnight Stay In Venice
2015 (English)Conference paper, Oral presentation with published abstract (Refereed)
National Category
Economics Other Social Sciences
Research subject
Complex Systems – Microdata Analysis
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:du-20266 (URN)
Conference
The 5th Conference of the International Association for Tourism Economics, 2015, 30 June- 3 July, 2015 Hong Kong SAR, China
Available from: 2015-11-18 Created: 2015-11-18 Last updated: 2015-11-25Bibliographically approved
Organisations
Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0002-9748-9572

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