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Estimated lifetimes of road pavements in Sweden using time-to-event analysis
Högskolan Dalarna, Akademin Industri och samhälle, Statistik.
2014 (Engelska)Ingår i: Journal of transportation engineering, ISSN 0733-947X, E-ISSN 1943-5436, Vol. 140, nr 11, artikel-id 04014056Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

Maintenance planning of road pavement requires reliable estimates of roads' lifetimes. In determining the lifetime of a road, this study combines maintenance activities and road condition measurements. The scope of the paper is to estimate lifetimes of road pavements in Sweden with time-to-event analysis. The model is stratified according to traffic load and includes effects of pavement type, road type, bearing capacity, road width, speed limit, stone size, and climate zone. Among the nine analyzed pavement types, stone mastic had the longest expected lifetime with a hazard ratio (risk of needing maintenance) estimated to be 36% lower than asphalt concrete. Among road types, 2+1 roads had 22% higher hazard ratio than ordinary roads indicating significantly lower lifetimes. Increased speed lowered the lifetime, while increased stone size (up to 20 mm) and increased road width lengthened the lifetime. The results are of importance for life-cycle cost analysis and road management. (C) 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
2014. Vol. 140, nr 11, artikel-id 04014056
Nyckelord [en]
Pavement management, Maintenance, Asphalt pavements, Time-to-event analysis, Survival analysis, Road pavements, Maintenance planning
Nationell ämneskategori
Sannolikhetsteori och statistik
Forskningsämne
Komplexa system - mikrodataanalys
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:du-16562DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)TE.1943-5436.0000712ISI: 000344010800005OAI: oai:DiVA.org:du-16562DiVA, id: diva2:774116
Tillgänglig från: 2014-12-22 Skapad: 2014-12-22 Senast uppdaterad: 2017-12-05Bibliografiskt granskad
Ingår i avhandling
1. A Microdata Analysis Approach to Transport Infrastructure Maintenance
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>A Microdata Analysis Approach to Transport Infrastructure Maintenance
2017 (Engelska)Doktorsavhandling, sammanläggning (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Abstract [en]

Maintenance of transport infrastructure assets is widely advocated as the key in minimizing current and future costs of the transportation network. While effective maintenance decisions are often a result of engineering skills and practical knowledge, efficient decisions must also account for the net result over an asset's life-cycle. One essential aspect in the long term perspective of transport infrastructure maintenance is to proactively estimate maintenance needs. In dealing with immediate maintenance actions, support tools that can prioritize potential maintenance candidates are important to obtain an efficient maintenance strategy.

This dissertation consists of five individual research papers presenting a microdata analysis approach to transport infrastructure maintenance. Microdata analysis is a multidisciplinary field in which large quantities of data is collected, analyzed, and interpreted to improve decision-making. Increased access to transport infrastructure data enables a deeper understanding of causal effects and a possibility to make predictions of future outcomes. The microdata analysis approach covers the complete process from data collection to actual decisions and is therefore well suited for the task of improving efficiency in transport infrastructure maintenance.

Statistical modeling was the selected analysis method in this dissertation and provided solutions to the different problems presented in each of the five papers. In Paper I, a time-to-event model was used to estimate remaining road pavement lifetimes in Sweden. In Paper II, an extension of the model in Paper I assessed the impact of latent variables on road lifetimes; displaying the sections in a road network that are weaker due to e.g. subsoil conditions or undetected heavy traffic. The study in Paper III incorporated a probabilistic parametric distribution as a representation of road lifetimes into an equation for the marginal cost of road wear. Differentiated road wear marginal costs for heavy and light vehicles are an important information basis for decisions regarding vehicle miles traveled (VMT) taxation policies.

In Paper IV, a distribution based clustering method was used to distinguish between road segments that are deteriorating and road segments that have a stationary road condition. Within railway networks, temporary speed restrictions are often imposed because of maintenance and must be addressed in order to keep punctuality. The study in Paper V evaluated the empirical effect on running time of speed restrictions on a Norwegian railway line using a generalized linear mixed model.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Borlänge: Dalarna University, 2017. s. 120
Serie
Dalarna Doctoral Dissertations ; 5
Nyckelord
Transport Infrastructure Asset Management, Transport Infrastructure Maintenance, Statistical Modeling, Microdata Analysis
Nationell ämneskategori
Sannolikhetsteori och statistik Infrastrukturteknik
Forskningsämne
Komplexa system - mikrodataanalys
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:du-23576 (URN)978-91-89020-97-9 (ISBN)
Disputation
2017-01-20, Borlänge, 11:45 (Engelska)
Opponent
Handledare
Tillgänglig från: 2016-12-14 Skapad: 2016-12-14 Senast uppdaterad: 2020-01-10Bibliografiskt granskad

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