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Understanding Rural Change -Demography as a key to the Future
Högskolan Dalarna, Akademin Industri och samhälle, Kulturgeografi.
2005 (engelsk)Inngår i: XXI Congress European Society for Rural Sociology, Keszthely (Hungary), 2005Konferansepaper, Publicerat paper (Annet vitenskapelig) Published
Abstract [en]

The last decades have seen a rapidly growing interest in foresight methodology. Methods have been developed in corporate and governmental communication exercises often labelled technology foresight. In reality, these foresights have often drifted into processes of social change, since technological change is hard to foresee beyond what is already in the pipe-line. Forecasting of social change, however, must be based on solid knowledge about the mechanisms of continuity and change. Virtually nothing can be said about the future without relating to the past; foresights and futures studies are about revealing the hidden pulse of history. Hence, the answer to forecasting the future is empirical research within the social sciences. Demographic change has been recognised as a key determinant for explaining social change. Population changes are fairly predictable and the age transition can explain a wide range of socio-economic changes. For rural futures, demographic change is a key issue, since age structure in rural areas is often uneven and also instable due to migration patterns.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
Keszthely (Hungary), 2005.
Emneord [en]
Demography, Rural, Future, Migration, Age structure
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:du-1428OAI: oai:dalea.du.se:1428DiVA, id: diva2:521499
Konferanse
A common European Countryside? Change and continuity, diversity and cohesion in the enlarged Europe , Keszthely (Hungary), 22-27 August 2005, 2005
Tilgjengelig fra: 2005-08-30 Laget: 2005-08-30 Sist oppdatert: 2012-04-24bibliografisk kontrollert

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