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How do neighbouring populations affect local population change over time?
Högskolan Dalarna, Akademin Industri och samhälle, Statistik.ORCID-id: 0000-0003-4212-8582
Högskolan Dalarna, Akademin Industri och samhälle, Kulturgeografi.ORCID-id: 0000-0003-4871-833X
Högskolan Dalarna, Akademin Industri och samhälle, Statistik.ORCID-id: 0000-0002-1057-5401
2013 (engelsk)Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
Abstract [en]

This study covers a period when society changed from a pre-industrial agricultural society to a post-industrial service-producing society. Parallel with this social transformation, major population changes took place. In this study, we analyse how local population changes are affected by neighbouring populations. To do so we use the last 200 years of local population change that redistributed population in Sweden. We use literature to identify several different processes and spatial dependencies in the redistribution between a parish and its surrounding parishes. The analysis is based on a unique unchanged historical parish division, and we use an index of local spatial correlation to describe different kinds of spatial dependencies that have influenced the redistribution of the population. To control inherent time dependencies, we introduce a non-separable spatial temporal correlation model into the analysis of population redistribution. Hereby, several different spatial dependencies can be observed simultaneously over time. The main conclusions are that while local population changes have been highly dependent on the neighbouring populations in the 19th century, this spatial dependence have become insignificant already when two parishes is separated by 5 kilometres in the late 20th century. Another conclusion is that the time dependency in the population change is higher when the population redistribution is weak, as it currently is and as it was during the 19th century until the start of industrial revolution.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
Borlänge: Högskolan Dalarna , 2013. , s. 31
Serie
Working papers in transport, tourism, information technology and microdata analysis, ISSN 1650-5581 ; 07
Emneord [en]
population redistribution, spatial dependency, Moran’s I, non-separable time space correlation model, Sweden
HSV kategori
Forskningsprogram
Komplexa system - mikrodataanalys, Allmänt Mikrodataaanalys - övrigt; Komplexa system - mikrodataanalys, Allmänt Mikrodataaanalys - metod
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:du-13013OAI: oai:DiVA.org:du-13013DiVA, id: diva2:651256
Tilgjengelig fra: 2013-09-25 Laget: 2013-09-25 Sist oppdatert: 2019-08-26bibliografisk kontrollert

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Håkansson, JohanRönnegård, Lars

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