This paper deals with a topic heavily discussed since Russia's advancements in Ukraine 2014 – that is the security-political situation of the Baltic Sea region. Many experts see the Baltic Sea as Russia's next target and are therefore concerned about the security of the littoral states. Within this area, Gotland is of special interest to me. Gotland is the key to the Baltics and equally strong is Russia's interest in the same.
I will perform a threat analysis for Gotland to reveal the real danger that Russia's security-political agenda presents. First, I will discuss the Russian realism and its implications for Russia's foreign and security policy. I will specify a set of key factors related to the theory of realism, which I will then utilize and discuss in different cases, representing Russia's policy in recent years. The results of the case studies shall serve as a basis for the discussion of the threat situation Gotland finds itself in.
I will conclude that a threat to Gotland exists, supported by the implications of the Russian realism, Russia's strong interest in controlling the Baltic Sea region, and Russia's ability to perform hybrid warfare at the least possible political and military cost to itself.