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Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease and Cancer Mortality by Achieving Healthy Dietary Goals for the Swedish Population: A Macro-Simulation Modelling Study
Lund Univ, Hlth Econ Unit, Dept Clin Sci Malmo, Scheelevagen 2, SE-22381 Lund, Sweden..ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8649-0773
Univ Copenhagen, Dept Food & Resource Econ, DK-1958 Frederiksberg, Denmark.;Lund Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Agrifood Econ Ctr, SE-22007 Lund, Sweden..ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8608-7976
Lund Univ, Hlth Econ Unit, Dept Clin Sci Malmo, Scheelevagen 2, SE-22381 Lund, Sweden.;Lund Univ, Dept Econ, SE-22363 Lund, Sweden..ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0647-7817
Natl Food Agcy, SE-75126 Uppsala, Sweden..
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2019 (English)In: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, ISSN 1661-7827, E-ISSN 1660-4601, Vol. 16, no 5, article id 890Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The objective is to estimate the number of deaths attributable to cardiovascular diseases and diet-related cancers that could be prevented or delayed in Sweden if adults adhere to the official dietary recommendations. We used an age-group and sex-specific epidemiological macro-simulation model to estimate preventable deaths due to the discrepancies between actual intake and recommended intake of changes in food components. Data included in the model are a baseline scenario (actual dietary intake), a counterfactual scenario (recommended intake) and age- and sex-specific mortality for cardiovascular and diet-related cancer diseases together compared with the total population risk of a specific year. Monte Carlo analyses with 5000 iterations was performed to produce the 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). The model predicts that 6405 (95% UI: 5086-7086) deaths could be prevented or delayed if the Swedish population could adhere to official dietary recommendations in a year. More deaths would be saved for men than women. The recommendations for fruits and vegetables could have saved 47% of the deaths, followed by fiber intake (32%). For men, fruits and vegetables could have saved more compared to other dietary components, while for women dietary fiber was the prominent factor. Public health policies should consider ensuring healthy eating practices for the Swedish population.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2019. Vol. 16, no 5, article id 890
Keywords [en]
cardiovascular diseases, diet-related cancers, dietary intake, dietary recommendations
National Category
Health Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:du-38483DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16050890ISI: 000462664200215PubMedID: 30870975OAI: oai:DiVA.org:du-38483DiVA, id: diva2:1602376
Available from: 2021-10-12 Created: 2021-10-12 Last updated: 2021-10-12Bibliographically approved

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Nordström, Jonas

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Saha, SanjibNordström, JonasGerdtham, Ulf-GScarborough, Peter
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