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The impact of seasonal unit roots and vector ARMA modelling on forecasting monthly tourism flows
Umeå universitet.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8608-7976
2001 (English)In: Tourism Economics, ISSN 1354-8166, E-ISSN 2044-0375, Vol. 7, no 2, p. 117-134Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The effect of imposing different numbers of unit roots on forecasting accuracy is examined using univariate ARMA models. To see whether additional information improves forecasting accuracy and increases the informative forecast horizon, the authors cross-relate the time series for inbound tourism in Sweden for different visitor categories and estimate vector ARMA models. The mean-squared forecast error for different filters indicates that models in which unit roots are imposed at all frequencies have the smallest forecast errors. The results from the vector ARMA models with all roots imposed indicate that the informative forecast horizon is greater than for the univariate models. Out-of-sample evaluations indicate, however, that the univariate modelling approach may be preferable.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2001. Vol. 7, no 2, p. 117-134
Keywords [en]
Accommodation, Demand analysis, Forecasting, Seasonality, VARMA, forecasting method, methodology, modeling, tourism economics
National Category
Economics and Business
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:du-38596DOI: 10.5367/000000001101297766Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-0034934720OAI: oai:DiVA.org:du-38596DiVA, id: diva2:1603776
Available from: 2021-10-18 Created: 2021-10-18 Last updated: 2021-10-18Bibliographically approved

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Nordström, Jonas

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  • apa
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  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
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  • text
  • asciidoc
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