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Testing feasibility of using a hidden Markov model on predicting human mobility based on GPS tracking data
Dalarna University, School of Information and Engineering, Microdata Analysis.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7190-2640
Dalarna University, School of Information and Engineering, Microdata Analysis.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4212-8582
Dalarna University, School of Information and Engineering, Microdata Analysis.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4871-833X
Dalarna University, School of Information and Engineering, Microdata Analysis.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7512-5321
2024 (English)In: Transportmetrica B: Transport Dynamics, ISSN 2168-0566, Vol. 12, no 1, article id 2336037Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Sustainable development
SDG 11: Sustainable cities and communities
Abstract [en]

Human mobility behaviour is far from random and can be predictable. Predicting human mobility behaviour has the potential to improve location selection for facilities, transportation services, urban planning, and can be beneficial in providing more efficient sustainable urban development strategies. However, it is difficult to model urban mobility patterns since incentives for mobility is complex, and influenced by several factors, such as dynamic population, weather conditions. Thus, this paper proposes a prediction-oriented algorithm under the framework of a Hidden Markov Model to predict next-location and time-of-arrival of human mobility. A comprehensive evaluation of these two schemes for the representation of latent and observable variables is discussed. In conclusion, the paper provides a valuable contribution to the field of mobility behaviour prediction by proposing a novel algorithm. The evaluation shows that the proposed algorithm is stable and consistent in predicting the next location of users based on their past trajectories. © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Taylor & Francis, 2024. Vol. 12, no 1, article id 2336037
Keywords [en]
GPS movement data, Human behaviour, Markov chain, spatial–temporal prediction, sustainable urban development
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics Computer Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:du-48388DOI: 10.1080/21680566.2024.2336037ISI: 001196930700001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85189611465OAI: oai:DiVA.org:du-48388DiVA, id: diva2:1852973
Available from: 2024-04-19 Created: 2024-04-19 Last updated: 2024-06-14Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. A Multi-Dimensional Approach to Human Mobility and Transportation Mode Detection Using GPS Data
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A Multi-Dimensional Approach to Human Mobility and Transportation Mode Detection Using GPS Data
2024 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

GPS tracking data is an essential resource for analyzing human travel patterns and evaluating the effects on transportation systems. The primary challenge, however, is to accurately identify the modes of transportation within unlabeled GPS data. These approaches range from simple rule-based systems to advanced machine-learning techniques. This dissertation aims to bridge this gap by examining the critical features and techniques of these methods and proposing a novel approach for detecting transportation modes in GPS tracking data. To achieve this goal, a comprehensive understanding of individual journeys is crucial. Thus, this research adopts a microdata analytic approach, encompassing data collection, processing, analysis, and decision-making stages. Doing so contributes to advancing human mobility research and transportation mode detection. 

Paper I undertook a systematic review of transport mode detection methodologies to fill the research gap, emphasizing the predominance of supervised learning algorithms and highlighting the need for further research to address the limitations of small datasets. Paper II introduced a stepwise methodology, integrating unsupervised learning, GIS, and supervised algorithms to detect transport modes while minimizing reliance on labelled data. The Random Forest algorithm emerged as a precise but time-intensive solution. Paper III showcased a novel approach to transport mode detection using deep learning models, outperforming traditional machine learning methods. This paper signals the potential of deep learning in the field and demonstrates the importance of raw GPS data in enhancing accuracy. Paper V addressed the challenge of predicting human mobility patterns under the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) framework, highlighting the applicability of HMMs to understanding and predicting complex mobility behaviour. This paper emphasized the need for GPS tracking data in developing advanced mobility models. Paper IV ventured into hybrid methodology by combining K-means clustering with the ANP-PSO algorithm to enhance transportation mode classification. This pioneering approach improved classification accuracy while reducing dependence on labelled datasets. 

Collectively, these papers underscore the opportunities and limitations in human mobility research, offering insights into future directions for mitigating data quality issues and improving the accuracy of transportation mode detection. These innovative methodologies have practical implications for transportation planning, resource allocation, and intelligent transportation system development, ultimately shaping the future of transportation research and decision-making. Standardized data collection, processing, and labelling methods are crucial and need attention in future research. Future research can focus on developing such benchmarks and validation protocols to enhance the reliability and comparability of results.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Borlänge: Dalarna University, 2024
Series
Dalarna Doctoral Dissertations ; 33
Keywords
Transport mode detection, Machine learning, Statistical learning, Rule-based method, Data labelling
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics Computer Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:du-48308 (URN)978-91-88679-62-8 (ISBN)
Public defence
2024-05-31, room Clas Ohlson, 13:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2024-04-19 Created: 2024-03-28 Last updated: 2024-04-19Bibliographically approved

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Sadeghian, PariaHan, MengjieHåkansson, JohanZhao, Xiaoyun

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Citation style
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