Dalarna University's logo and link to the university's website

du.sePublications
Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • chicago-author-date
  • chicago-note-bibliography
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Testing linear cointegration against smooth-transition cointegration
Dalarna University, School of Technology and Business Studies, Statistics.
2011 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This paper studies a smooth-transition (ST) type cointegration. The proposed ST cointegration allows for regime switching structure in a cointegrated system. It nests the linear cointegration developed by Engle and Granger (1987) and the threshold cointegration studied by Balke and Fomby (1997). We develop F-type tests to examine linear cointegration against ST cointegration in ST-type cointegrating regression models with or without time trends. The null asymptotic distributions of the tests are derived with stationary transition variables in ST cointegrating regression models. And it is shown that our tests have nonstandard limiting distributions expressed in terms of standard Brownian motion when regressors are pure random walks, while have standard asymptotic distributions when regressors contain random walks with nonzero drift. Finite-sample distributions of those tests are studied by Monto Carlo simulations. The small-sample performance of the tests states that our F-type tests have a better power when the system contains ST cointegration than when the system is linearly cointegrated. An empirical example for the purchasing power parity (PPP) data (monthly US dollar, Italy lira and dollar-lira exchange rate from 1973:01 to 1989:10) is illustrated by applying the testing procedures in this paper. It is found that there is no linear cointegration in the system, but there exits the ST-type cointegration in the PPP data.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Borlänge: Högskolan Dalarna , 2011.
Series
Working papers in transport, tourism, information technology and microdata analysis, ISSN 1650-5581 ; 2011:01
Keywords [en]
cointegration; smooth transition; F-type test; purchasing power parity.
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Research subject
Complex Systems – Microdata Analysis, Nonlinear Cointegration i Nonlinear Vector autoregressive modeller: teori och tillämpningar
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:du-6042OAI: oai:dalea.du.se:6042DiVA, id: diva2:520481
Available from: 2011-11-04 Created: 2011-11-04 Last updated: 2021-11-12Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Common Features in Vector Nonlinear Time Series Models
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Common Features in Vector Nonlinear Time Series Models
2013 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This thesis consists of four manuscripts in the area of nonlinear time series econometrics on topics of testing, modeling and forecasting nonlinear common features. The aim of this thesis is to develop new econometric contributions for hypothesis testing and forecasting in these area.

Both stationary and nonstationary time series are concerned. A definition of common features is proposed in an appropriate way to each class. Based on the definition, a vector nonlinear time series model with common features is set up for testing for common features. The proposed models are available for forecasting as well after being well specified.

The first paper addresses a testing procedure on nonstationary time series. A class of nonlinear cointegration, smooth-transition (ST) cointegration, is examined. The ST cointegration nests the previously developed linear and threshold cointegration. An Ftypetest for examining the ST cointegration is derived when stationary transition variables are imposed rather than nonstationary variables. Later ones drive the test standard, while the former ones make the test nonstandard. This has important implications for empirical work. It is crucial to distinguish between the cases with stationary and nonstationary transition variables so that the correct test can be used. The second and the fourth papers develop testing approaches for stationary time series. In particular, the vector ST autoregressive (VSTAR) model is extended to allow for common nonlinear features (CNFs). These two papers propose a modeling procedure and derive tests for the presence of CNFs. Including model specification using the testing contributions above, the third paper considers forecasting with vector nonlinear time series models and extends the procedures available for univariate nonlinear models. The VSTAR model with CNFs and the ST cointegration model in the previous papers are exemplified in detail,and thereafter illustrated within two corresponding macroeconomic data sets.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Öerbro: Örebro University, 2013
Series
Örebro Studies in Statistics, ISSN 1651-8608 ; 6
Keywords
Nonlinearity, Time series, Econometrics, Smooth transition, Common features, Cointegration, Forecasting, Residual-based, PPP.
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Research subject
Research Profiles 2009-2020, Complex Systems – Microdata Analysis
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:du-13253 (URN)978-91-7668-952-3 (ISBN)
Public defence
2013-10-01, Långhuset HSL 3, Örebro University, Örebro, 13:15 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2013-11-11 Created: 2013-11-11 Last updated: 2021-11-12Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

fulltext(318 kB)319 downloads
File information
File name FULLTEXT04.pdfFile size 318 kBChecksum SHA-512
7a413f440a7887e0291051238c796e3640f5398d9326d3be8677fd723b6dd6aa35ba319a8c4cb53c2a2e351646dae48888e761819da3fc3e187974c040a91b4d
Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Li, Dao
By organisation
Statistics
Probability Theory and Statistics

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Total: 414 downloads
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

urn-nbn

Altmetric score

urn-nbn
Total: 1912 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • chicago-author-date
  • chicago-note-bibliography
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf