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To what extent do neighbouring populations affect local population growth over time?
Dalarna University, School of Technology and Business Studies, Statistics. HUI Research.
Dalarna University, School of Technology and Business Studies, Information Systems. Dalarna University, School of Technology and Business Studies, Human Geography. HUI Research, Stockholm.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4871-833X
Dalarna University, School of Technology and Business Studies, Statistics. HUI Research, Stockholm.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1057-5401
2016 (English)In: Population, Space and Place, ISSN 1544-8444, E-ISSN 1544-8452, Vol. 22, no 1, p. 68-83Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This study covers a period when society changed from a pre-industrial agricultural society to a post-industrial service-producing society. Parallel with this social transformation, major population changes took place. In this study, we analyse to what extent local population change is affected by neighbouring populations. To do this, we focused on the last 190 years of local population change that redistributed population in Sweden. We used literature to identify several different processes in the population redistribution. The different processes implied different spatial dependencies between local population change and the surrounding populations. The analysis is based on an unchanged historical parish division, and we used an index of local spatial correlation to describe different types of spatial dependencies that influenced the redistribution of the population. To control inherent time dependencies, we introduced a non-separable spatial-temporal correlation model into the analysis of population redistribution. Hereby, several different spatial dependencies could be simultaneously observed over time. The main conclusions are that while local population changes have been highly dependent on neighbouring populations in the 19th century, this spatial dependence became insignificant already when two parishes are separated by 5 km in the late 20th century. It is argued that the only process that significantly redistributed the population at the end of the 20th century is the immigration to Sweden.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
John Wiley & Sons, 2016. Vol. 22, no 1, p. 68-83
Keywords [en]
population redistribution, long term trends, spatial dependency, local Moran’s I, non-separable time space correlation model, Sweden
National Category
Social and Economic Geography Probability Theory and Statistics
Research subject
Complex Systems – Microdata Analysis
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:du-16262DOI: 10.1002/psp.1864ISI: 000371830900005OAI: oai:DiVA.org:du-16262DiVA, id: diva2:758580
Available from: 2014-10-27 Created: 2014-10-27 Last updated: 2017-12-05Bibliographically approved

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Håkansson, JohanRönnegård, Lars

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