du.sePublications
Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Past Decline Versus Current eGFR and Subsequent ESRD Risk
Show others and affiliations
Number of Authors: 12
2016 (English)In: Journal of the American Society of Nephrology, ISSN 1046-6673, E-ISSN 1533-3450, Vol. 27, no 8, 2447-2455 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

eGFR is a robust predictor of ESRD risk. However, the prognostic information gained from the past trajectory (slope) beyond that of the current eGFR is unclear. We examined 22 cohorts to determine the association of past slopes and current eGFR level with subsequent ESRD. We modeled hazard ratios as a spline function of slopes, adjusting for demographic variables, eGFR, and comorbidities. We used random effects meta-analyses to combine results across studies stratified by cohort type. We calculated the absolute risk of ESRD at 5 years after the last eGFR using the weighted average baseline risk. Overall, 1,080,223 participants experienced 5163 ESRD events during a mean follow-up of 2.0 years. In CKD cohorts, a slope of -6 versus 0 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) per year over the previous 3 years (a decline of 18 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) versus no decline) associated with an adjusted hazard ratio of ESRD of 2.28 (95% confidence interval, 1.88 to 2.76). In contrast, a current eGFR of 30 versus 50 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) (a difference of 20 ml/min per 1.73 m(2)) associated with an adjusted hazard ratio of 19.9 (95% confidence interval, 13.6 to 29.1). Past decline contributed more to the absolute risk of ESRD at lower than higher levels of current eGFR. In conclusion, during a follow-up of 2 years, current eGFR associates more strongly with future ESRD risk than the magnitude of past eGFR decline, but both contribute substantially to the risk of ESRD, especially at eGFR<30 ml/min per 1.73 m(2).

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2016. Vol. 27, no 8, 2447-2455 p.
Keyword [en]
progression of chronic renal failure, glomerular filtration rate, epidemiology and outcomes, end-stage renal disease
National Category
Clinical Medicine
Research subject
Health and Welfare
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:du-20562DOI: 10.1681/ASN.2015060687PubMedID: 26657867OAI: oai:DiVA.org:du-20562DiVA: diva2:937786
Available from: 2016-06-15 Created: 2015-12-30 Last updated: 2016-09-26Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text

Other links

Publisher's full textPubMed

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Ärnlöv, Johan
By organisation
Medical Science
In the same journal
Journal of the American Society of Nephrology
Clinical Medicine

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

Altmetric score

Total: 164 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf