The last decades have seen a rapidly growing interest in foresight methodology. Methods have been developed in corporate and governmental communication exercises often labelled technology foresight. In reality, these foresights have often drifted into processes of social change, since technological change is hard to foresee beyond what is already in the pipe-line. Forecasting of social change, however, must be based on solid knowledge about the mechanisms of continuity and change. Virtually nothing can be said about the future without relating to the past; foresights and futures studies are about revealing the hidden pulse of history. Hence, the answer to forecasting the future is empirical research within the social sciences. Demographic change has been recognised as a key determinant for explaining social change. Population changes are fairly predictable and the age transition can explain a wide range of socio-economic changes. For rural futures, demographic change is a key issue, since age structure in rural areas is often uneven and also unstable due to migration patterns. A number of policy related questions as well as research challenges are raised as a consequence.
Several authors in the futures studies field have in their efforts to improve quality argued that better methods must be developed, which makes sense. But the theoretical awareness in the substantive questions upon which the studies are based is probably more important. In that light, the primary objective of this article is to formulate a method of how fundamental social issues (views on society and humanity) are addressed in a future study, apply it to one empirical case (telecommunications company Ericsson) and thereafter analyze the method’s strengths and weaknesses. The study shows that the method gained a satisfactory foothold in the material and it has an appropriate depth in relation to desired efficiency. This work has shown that the analytical method is relevant and adequate to understand and describe the orientation and contents of futures studies. Therewith, the study has generated greater awareness of fundamental assumptions in future studies that can contribute to enhancing their quality. © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
This article examines ‘futures literacy’ as a pedagogical framework and thus contributes to the conversation about the epistemology of futures literacy, the possibility of envisioning approaches for the future, and a unified approach to literacy, based on the assumption that education is transformative and entails critical-thinking. Specifically, we explore and discuss what futures literacy means in a pedagogical context in general and in early school years education in particular. We reflect on what futures literacy may include based on the Four Resources model of literacy, and we elaborate on the epistemology of futures literacy. In our conclusions, we advo-cate a pedagogical approach that is active- and sensory-based. We claim that multimodal literacy approaches hold potential for democratic opportunities and alternative discourses which inte-grate students’ corporeal actions, sensation, and play whilst recognising diverse expressions.
This text discusses today’s digital transformation through the lens of Horkheimer and Adornos’ study of the enlightenment. Policy and public discourse around digitalisation embrace and adhere to the narrow tenets enlightenment thinking; the idea that rationality, individual freedom, and a society free from superstition are necessary and attainable goals. The costs of what has come to be called ‘Modernity’ are many. Through the application of rationality to all spheres of life, married with disruptive technological advancement, humanity has diminished its’ imagination – its ability to seek new directions. To paraphrase Horkheimer and Adorno, Modernism fights against nature, of which we are a part, and thus, paradoxically, sets us in a fight against ourselves. Environmental degradation, the price of progress, being just one example of this – deadening work, consumerism and severed social connections being amongst others. In this framing, digitalisation itself comes to be understood itself as akin to a force of nature – one that we can do little about, other than adjust and adapt or be swept away. But this by no means a foregone conclusion, there is light at the end of the optical fibre. Albeit that recent technical developments around artificial intelligence appears to be pushing policy makers into hasty decisions, the pace of the technical development is not as fast as we believe, and in comparison with the Reformation – we have time. If we can restrain ourselves from the resist, adapt or die responses promoted in popular discourse in face of the shock of large language models and rising threat of automation, then we create room to consider economic, social, and ecological alignment and accord, in the decision making and design of future interactive artefacts and digital services. The article argues that through postdigital aesthetics, technology makers can embrace materiality and the inherent qualities of digital technology to formulate a critique of existing trajectories in digital transformation, with consequences for a more sustainable future.
Ageing societies need to supply support to an ever growing segment of elderly dependent population without compromising the future sustainability for the currently young or unborn population. Current tendencies to focus on policy solutions like automatic stabilisers and norm-based pre-commitment strategies with decisions delegated to experts carry a high risk of political breakdown when the future population re-evaluates this with new information. Using the Swedish pension reform as a concrete example we show how the futurity problem associated with the current non-existence of the future population makes the political process prone to avoid bringing issues with very long horizons into the public debate. Alternative demographic scenarios for Sweden are used to illustrate how even very small variations in the assumptions of demographic projections lead to radically different future population structures. Hence, the majority preferences in a distant future cannot be foreseen. Adding to this, the complex interactions with a changing environment of technology and nature time-consistent decision making at the far future horizon must be virtually impossible. Thus, the sustainability of long-term social security systems requires constitutional balances that provide for orderly and continual adaptation rather than once-for-all fixes that are likely to be rejected by future electorates.