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  • 1.
    Laryea, Rueben
    et al.
    Dalarna University, School of Technology and Business Studies, Microdata Analysis.
    Carling, Kenneth
    Dalarna University, School of Technology and Business Studies, Microdata Analysis.
    Cialani, Catia
    Dalarna University, School of Technology and Business Studies, Economics.
    A Food Price Volatility Model for Country Risk Classification2018In: International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, ISSN 1466-8297, E-ISSN 1741-5241Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Decision makers require risk models which satisfies their preferences in decision making processes. A methodological approach to presenting a decision model that satisfies the preferences of the decision maker and aids the decision maker to classify countries into crisis groups based on the price volatility of food staple criteria is discussed in this paper. The price volatility of food staples is obtained from time series plots and a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis method, the UTilitdditives DIScriminantes (UTADIS) classification methodological framework is applied on the price volatility data to develop a food price volatility classification model which suits the decision maker’s preferences. The methodological framework is better applied in this paper by aiding the decision maker to make informed judgements on the price volatility of food staples in predefining their risk classes. This introduces efficiency in the application of the methodological classification framework, by reducing to the barest minimum level, the misclassification errors between the decision makers preferred classification and the UTADIS method’s classification which estimates the utility function or classification model and the utility threshold or cut-off points which would classify the country alternatives into their authentic or original classes with the execution of the methodological framework just once. The resulting utility function or classification model is thus accurate enough to satisfy the preferences of the decision maker in classifying future datasets.

  • 2.
    Laryea, Rueben
    et al.
    Dalarna University, School of Technology and Business Studies, Microdata Analysis.
    Carling, Kenneth
    Dalarna University, School of Technology and Business Studies, Microdata Analysis.
    Cialani, Catia
    Dalarna University, School of Technology and Business Studies, Economics.
    Nyberg, Roger G.
    Dalarna University, School of Technology and Business Studies, Information Systems.
    Sensitivity analysis of a risk classification model for food price volatility2018In: International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, ISSN 1466-8297, E-ISSN 1741-5241, Vol. 21, no 4, p. 374-382Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A sensitivity analysis to vary the weights of an accurate predictive classification model to produce a mixed model for ranking countries on the risk of food price volatility is carried out in this paper. The classification model is a marginal utility function consisting of multiple criteria. The aim of the sensitivity analysis is to derive a mixed model to be used in ranking of country alternatives to aid in policy formulation. Since in real-life situations the data that goes into decision making could be subjected to possibilities of alterations over time, it is essential to aid decision makers to vary the weights of the criteria using both subjective and objective information to introduce imprecision and to generate relative values of the criteria with a scale to form a mixed model. The mixed model can be used to rank future relative alternative value data sets for policy formulation.

1 - 2 of 2
CiteExportLink to result list
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Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • chicago-author-date
  • chicago-note-bibliography
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
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  • rtf