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  • 1. Hallan, Stein I
    et al.
    Matsushita, Kunihiro
    Sang, Yingying
    Mahmoodi, Bakhtawar K
    Black, Corri
    Ishani, Areef
    Kleefstra, Nanne
    Naimark, David
    Roderick, Paul
    Tonelli, Marcello
    Wetzels, Jack F M
    Astor, Brad C
    Gansevoort, Ron T
    Levin, Adeera
    Wen, Chi-Pang
    Coresh, Josef
    Age and association of kidney measures with mortality and end-stage renal disease2012In: Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA), ISSN 0098-7484, E-ISSN 1538-3598, Vol. 308, no 22, p. 2349-60Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    CONTEXT: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is prevalent in older individuals, but the risk implications of low estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and high albuminuria across the full age range are controversial.

    OBJECTIVE: To evaluate possible effect modification (interaction) by age of the association of eGFR and albuminuria with clinical risk, examining both relative and absolute risks.

    DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Individual-level meta-analysis including 2,051,244 participants from 33 general population or high-risk (of vascular disease) cohorts and 13 CKD cohorts from Asia, Australasia, Europe, and North/South America, conducted in 1972-2011 with a mean follow-up time of 5.8 years (range, 0-31 years).

    MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Hazard ratios (HRs) of mortality and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) according to eGFR and albuminuria were meta-analyzed across age categories after adjusting for sex, race, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, cholesterol, body mass index, and smoking. Absolute risks were estimated using HRs and average incidence rates.

    RESULTS: Mortality (112,325 deaths) and ESRD (8411 events) risks were higher at lower eGFR and higher albuminuria in every age category. In general and high-risk cohorts, relative mortality risk for reduced eGFR decreased with increasing age; eg, adjusted HRs at an eGFR of 45 mL/min/1.73 m2 vs 80 mL/min/1.73 m2 were 3.50 (95% CI, 2.55-4.81), 2.21 (95% CI, 2.02-2.41), 1.59 (95% CI, 1.42-1.77), and 1.35 (95% CI, 1.23-1.48) in age categories 18-54, 55-64, 65-74, and ≥75 years, respectively (P <.05 for age interaction). Absolute risk differences for the same comparisons were higher at older age (9.0 [95% CI, 6.0-12.8], 12.2 [95% CI, 10.3-14.3], 13.3 [95% CI, 9.0-18.6], and 27.2 [95% CI, 13.5-45.5] excess deaths per 1000 person-years, respectively). For increased albuminuria, reduction of relative risk with increasing age was less evident, while differences in absolute risk were higher in older age categories (7.5 [95% CI, 4.3-11.9], 12.2 [95% CI, 7.9-17.6], 22.7 [95% CI, 15.3-31.6], and 34.3 [95% CI, 19.5-52.4] excess deaths per 1000 person-years, respectively by age category, at an albumin-creatinine ratio of 300 mg/g vs 10 mg/g). In CKD cohorts, adjusted relative hazards of mortality did not decrease with age. In all cohorts, ESRD relative risks and absolute risk differences at lower eGFR or higher albuminuria were comparable across age categories.

    CONCLUSIONS: Both low eGFR and high albuminuria were independently associated with mortality and ESRD regardless of age across a wide range of populations. Mortality showed lower relative risk but higher absolute risk differences at older age.

  • 2.
    Jobs, Elisabeth
    et al.
    Dalarna University, School of Education, Health and Social Studies, Medical Science.
    Ingelsson, Erik
    Risérus, Ulf
    Nerpin, Elisabet
    Dalarna University, School of Education, Health and Social Studies, Medical Science.
    Jobs, Magnus
    Dalarna University, School of Education, Health and Social Studies, Medical Science.
    Sundström, Johan
    Basu, Samar
    Larsson, Anders
    Lind, Lars
    Ärnlöv, Johan
    Dalarna University, School of Education, Health and Social Studies, Medical Science.
    Association between serum cathepsin S and mortality in older adults2011In: Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA), ISSN 0098-7484, E-ISSN 1538-3598, Vol. 306, no 10, p. 1113-1121Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Context: Experimental data suggest that cathepsin S, a cysteine protease, is involved in the complex pathways leading to cardiovascular disease and cancer. However, prospective data concerning a potential association between circulating cathepsin S levels and mortality are lacking. Objective To investigate associations between circulating cathepsin S levels and mortality in 2 independent cohorts of elderly men and women.

    Design, Setting, and Participants: Prospective study using 2 community-based cohorts, the Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM; n = 1009; mean age: 71 years; baseline period: 1991-1995; median follow-up: 12.6 years; end of follow-up: 2006) and the Prospective Investigation of the Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors (PIVUS; n = 987; 50% women; mean age: 70 years; baseline period: 2001-2004; median follow-up: 7.9 years; end of follow-up: 2010). Serum samples were used to measure cathepsin S.

    Main Outcome Measure Total mortality.

    Results: During follow-up, 413 participants died in the ULSAM cohort (incidence rate: 3.59/100 person-years at risk) and 100 participants died in the PIVUS cohort (incidence rate: 1.32/100 person-years at risk). In multivariable Cox regression models adjusted for age, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, smoking status, body mass index, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, antihypertensive treatment, lipid-lowering treatment, and history of cardiovascular disease, higher serum cathepsin S was associated with an increased risk for mortality (ULSAM cohort: hazard ratio [HR] for 1-unit increase of cathepsin S, 1.04 [95% CI, 1.01-1.06], P = .009; PIVUS cohort: HR for 1-unit increase of cathepsin S, 1.03 [95% CI, 1.00-1.07], P = .04). In the ULSAM cohort, serum cathepsin S also was associated with cardiovascular mortality (131 deaths; HR for quintile 5 vs quintiles 1-4, 1.62 [95% CI, 1.11-2.37]; P = .01) and cancer mortality (148 deaths; HR for 1-unit increase of cathepsin S, 1.05 [95% CI, 1.01-1.10]; P = .01).

    Conclusions Among elderly individuals in 2 independent cohorts, higher serum cathepsin S levels were associated with increased mortality risk. Additional research is needed to delineate the role of cathepsin S and whether its measurement might have clinical utility.

  • 3. Matsushita, Kunihiro
    et al.
    Mahmoodi, Bakhtawar K
    Woodward, Mark
    Emberson, Jonathan R
    Jafar, Tazeen H
    Jee, Sun Ha
    Polkinghorne, Kevan R
    Shankar, Anoop
    Smith, David H
    Tonelli, Marcello
    Warnock, David G
    Wen, Chi-Pang
    Coresh, Josef
    Gansevoort, Ron T
    Hemmelgarn, Brenda R
    Levey, Andrew S
    Ärnlöv, Johan
    Dalarna University, School of Education, Health and Social Studies, Medical Science.
    Comparison of risk prediction using the CKD-EPI equation and the MDRD study equation for estimated glomerular filtration rate2012In: Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA), ISSN 0098-7484, E-ISSN 1538-3598, Vol. 307, no 18, p. 1941-51Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    CONTEXT: The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation more accurately estimates glomerular filtration rate (GFR) than the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) Study equation using the same variables, especially at higher GFR, but definitive evidence of its risk implications in diverse settings is lacking.

    OBJECTIVE: To evaluate risk implications of estimated GFR using the CKD-EPI equation compared with the MDRD Study equation in populations with a broad range of demographic and clinical characteristics.

    DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A meta-analysis of data from 1.1 million adults (aged ≥ 18 years) from 25 general population cohorts, 7 high-risk cohorts (of vascular disease), and 13 CKD cohorts. Data transfer and analyses were conducted between March 2011 and March 2012.

    MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: All-cause mortality (84,482 deaths from 40 cohorts), cardiovascular mortality (22,176 events from 28 cohorts), and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) (7644 events from 21 cohorts) during 9.4 million person-years of follow-up; the median of mean follow-up time across cohorts was 7.4 years (interquartile range, 4.2-10.5 years).

    RESULTS: Estimated GFR was classified into 6 categories (≥90, 60-89, 45-59, 30-44, 15-29, and <15 mL/min/1.73 m(2)) by both equations. Compared with the MDRD Study equation, 24.4% and 0.6% of participants from general population cohorts were reclassified to a higher and lower estimated GFR category, respectively, by the CKD-EPI equation, and the prevalence of CKD stages 3 to 5 (estimated GFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2)) was reduced from 8.7% to 6.3%. In estimated GFR of 45 to 59 mL/min/1.73 m(2) by the MDRD Study equation, 34.7% of participants were reclassified to estimated GFR of 60 to 89 mL/min/1.73 m(2) by the CKD-EPI equation and had lower incidence rates (per 1000 person-years) for the outcomes of interest (9.9 vs 34.5 for all-cause mortality, 2.7 vs 13.0 for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.5 vs 0.8 for ESRD) compared with those not reclassified. The corresponding adjusted hazard ratios were 0.80 (95% CI, 0.74-0.86) for all-cause mortality, 0.73 (95% CI, 0.65-0.82) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.49 (95% CI, 0.27-0.88) for ESRD. Similar findings were observed in other estimated GFR categories by the MDRD Study equation. Net reclassification improvement based on estimated GFR categories was significantly positive for all outcomes (range, 0.06-0.13; all P < .001). Net reclassification improvement was similarly positive in most subgroups defined by age (<65 years and ≥65 years), sex, race/ethnicity (white, Asian, and black), and presence or absence of diabetes and hypertension. The results in the high-risk and CKD cohorts were largely consistent with the general population cohorts.

    CONCLUSION: The CKD-EPI equation classified fewer individuals as having CKD and more accurately categorized the risk for mortality and ESRD than did the MDRD Study equation across a broad range of populations.

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