The Stockholm congestion charging trial in 2006 demonstrated the effects of a full-scale time-differentiated urban road toll scheme. Improvements in travel times were large enough to be perceived by the general public. This was pivotal to the radical change of public attitudes that occurred during the trial and that resulted in a positive outcome of a subsequent referendum on a proposal for making the system permanent. This paper summarises the effects of the trial and analyses to what extent targets were met. Effects on congestion reduction were larger than anticipated, which also resulted in favourable economic and environmental effects. The trial showed that a single-cordon toll could affect traffic within a large area, i.e., not just close to the zone limits.
This report compiles the results from the project Theme Environmental risks. More specifically, the project concerned how different transport related environmental risks influence different road users and how their behaviour influence the environment. The project aimed at preparing for interdisciplinary research about environmental risks at VTI. The project was divided into three parts. The first subproject aimed at compiling literature about transport related environmental risks from psychological and economic perspectives, and in the second subproject a willingness to pay study was outlined where both economic and psychological principles were considered. In the third subproject, a simulator study was outlined. The focus was to study environmental effects of driving under controlled circumstances in the driving simulator. The report is divided into two parts. In part 1, the results from the literature review and the proposal for a willingness to pay study are described (subproject 1 and 2). This part is written in English. Part 2 contains a project outline for a simulator study in the form of an research project application (project 3). This part is written in Swedish.
Transportstyrelsen genomför konsekvensutredningar bland annat avseende förslag till förändringar i föreskrifter, framställan till regelförändringar och som en del i regeringsuppdrag. Myndigheten har under senare år identifierat ett behov av att vidga innehållet i konsekvensutredningarna för att kunna bedöma om nya och förändrade regleringar bidrar till en transport-försörjning som är samhällsekonomiskt effektiv. Ett utvecklingsarbete har pågått sedan myndigheten bildades 2009.
Inom ramen för ett pågående forskningsprojekt genomfört av Centrum för Transportstudier (CTS) – Samhällsekonomisk analys av regleringar – studeras effekterna av de förändringar som genomförts. Syftet är att analysera de problem som uppkommer i det praktiska arbetet med genomförandet av konsekvensanalyser av samhällsekonomisk effektivitet och att, baserat på resultaten, utveckla en mer generell metodik för hur arbetet ska genomföras och vad som bör ingå i den samhällsekonomiska analysen.
This report is commissioned by the Swedish Civil Aviation Authority. The aim is to update the knowledge regarding the price relevant costs of aviation. We distinguish between marginal costs caused by airport activities and those caused by the external effects of pollution and noise. The review shows that vital data is missing regarding the activities and effects of aviation in order to perform solid marginal cost calculations. In the report we have calculated approximative values for two types of airplanes. Marginal costs related to airport services are divided into those related to passenger services and those related to congestion services. We conclude that the Swedish charges are at least twice as high as marginal costs. We do, however, lack any estimation of the congestion-related marginal costs. Regarding the external effects, today's charges concerning the landing and take-off cycle are sufficient although partly mischarged since they only reflect NOx-emissions. Moreover it should be examined if emissions during flying should be charged or not. The conclusion of this report is that more research is needed in this area. This concerns studies dealing with Swedish airports as well as making cost data publicly available.
International organisations, such as the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the European Union (EU), are seeking to implement a cohesive Regulatory Impact Assessment (RIA) system in order to achieve better regulation and increased unity and transparency. Central to these evaluations is the use of cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and related tools. A comprehensive analysis of the use of impact assessment in the EU shows that many assessments lack important economic components. This paper draws on an extensive document study of the Swedish policy making process related to the EU Directive 2009/28/EC on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources. The aim of the paper is to examine how CBA is presented, negotiated and accounted for by central actors within a policy setting influenced by negotiation and policy coordination. The paper departs from a theoretical perspective on policy coordination and shows how this factor must be considered when explaining the low use of CBA. It concludes that the Swedish policy tradition, wherein the national government relies on consensus-based coordination between agencies, might counteract a more explicit assessment of different policy options. The paper also proposes a model that can be used for further studies on CBA and policy coordination.
Vi föreslår en förbättrad process för arbetet med EU-lagstiftning i Sverige, baserad på exempel från Danmark och Finland. Sverige gör i bästa fall konsekvensanalyser när lagstiftningsprocessen har kommit till fasen för nationell implementering. EU:s lagstiftningsprocess börjar dock redan när rykten börjar cirkulera om att kommissionen ska föreslå ny reglering. I nästa fas får medlemsländerna mer information om kommissionens planer i form av kommissionens arbetsprogram, en färdplan, eller en grön- eller vitbok. Senast i detta skede bör en ex ante nuläges- och konsekvensanalys göras enligt finsk modell. Effektivare ex post-implementering kan stödjas av införandet av ett implementeringsråd enligt dansk modell.
Social scientists regularly criticize the use of cost-benefit analysis (CBA), which has led to much focus being placed on investigating the possible biases related to its results. Recent research shows that CBA is not routinely done prior to environmental, energy, and climate policymaking in Sweden, and in countries where a CBA is made, the results have little influence on political decisions. This paper investigates obstacles to using CBA information with a focus on bureaucrats. We use empirical data from Sweden, where the ministries are small by international standards and hence government agencies have a sizeable influence on policymaking. We construct a theoretical model and then test the theoretical predictions with empirical data collected from five Swedish government agencies. The empirical results lend support both for the assertion that risk aversion concerning the environmental outcome, the bureaucrats’ environmental attitudes, and the cost of taking CBA information into account have a considerable impact on the probability of using information from a CBA. Hence risk averse and bureaucrats with strong environmental preferences are less likely and bureaucrats with low cost of doing a CBA more likely than other bureaucrats to use CBA information. Finally, a binding governmental budget constraint may positively influence a bureaucrat’s choice of undertaking a CBA. A tentative conclusion is therefore that it may be possible to increase the use of CBA by making the budgetary consequences of policies much clearer and demanding due consideration of costs.
A commonly assumed reason for the delegation of authority from a legislature (politicians) to bureaucracies is that the bureaucrats have an information advantage over the politicians, including knowledge of cost–benefit analysis (CBA). But it is reasonable to assume that the bureaucrats use their information advantage by taking all relevant aspects of policy into account? We model the use of CBA using a delegation model and then test the theoretical predictions with empirical data collected from five Swedish government agencies. The empirical results lend support both for the hypothesis that risk aversion concerning the environmental outcome, the bureaucrats’ environmental attitudes, and the cost of taking CBA information into account have a considerable impact on the probability of using information from a CBA. Hence risk averse and bureaucrats with strong environmental preferences are less likely and bureaucrats with low cost of doing a CBA more likely than other bureaucrats to use CBA information. Finally, a binding governmental budget constraint may positively influence a bureaucrat’s choice of using CBA information. A tentative conclusion is therefore that it may be possible to increase the use of CBA by making the budgetary consequences of policies much clearer and demanding due consideration of costs.
Civil servants in governmental agencies regularly both propose environmental policies for the elected politicians and make own decisions. In making these decisions they may be influenced by legal norms, agency policy and culture, professional norms acquired through education as well as personal political preferences. This study tests how students in late stages of professional training in economics, biology and social sciences handle information in order to make a stylized choice of a national nutrient limit for lake water, or choose a program at a municipal level to lower the nutrient level in a local lake. The purpose is to test whether professional norms acquired during academic education and/or the presence of an international standard influences decision-making. We examine three hypotheses. Firstly, students’ political attitudes affect their choice of major, i.e. biology, economics or social sciences, and thereby indirectly their decisions. We find that the distribution of the political values among disciplines is compatible with the hypothesis, which therefore is not rejected. Secondly, a student’s major influences the kind of information they use and consequently the policy choice they will recommend. In plain words we expected biology students to go for environmentally more ambitious (lower) nutrient limits and economics students to prefer economically efficient (higher) levels. The central result is that while economics majors are more likely than biology or social science majors to choose a cost-efficient nutrient limit, the mean and median values of the nutrient levels chosen by the three groups do not differ from one another in a statistically significant way. Economists thus have a higher standard deviation in their answers than the other majors. The third hypothesis is that the presence of an internationally approved standard level for the nutrient content will significantly influence the choice of national nutrient limit. We find that biology students are influenced to set a lower nutrient limit when presented with the standard than otherwise, thereby rejecting the null hypothesis for this group. For students in economics and social sciences, no significant effect is found. Our results have implications for the feasibility of micromanagement in government agencies as recruiting economists to environmental agencies may not be sufficient to ensure economically efficient decisions. The findings also should sound a warning about the skills learned by economics majors at the two largest universities in Sweden: while some students seem familiar with the concepts of optimality and cost efficiency and able to use them, this applies to far from all of them.
Transport is an area where the public sector plays an important role for the design and the functioning of the system. In Sweden the overriding goal for transport policy is to ensure the economically efficient and sustainable provision of transport services for people and businesses throughout the country. When making changes to the system there is a need for information on the advantages and disadvantages of different policy options so that the decisions are based on balanced evidence. To meet these ends, the methodology of cost-benefit analysis is applied as a decision support tool, especially regarding decision related to infrastructure investment. The Swedish Transport Administration and the Swedish Transport Agency have the main responsibility for the design and functioning of the transport system in Sweden. The former is responsible for the infrastructure while the latter is more concerned with the management of traffic and the design of rules and regulations. The Swedish Transport Agency also exercises supervision. In 2012 the Swedish Transport Agency commissioned VTI to develop a first version of a calculation handbook to be used in the impact assessments performed by the Agency, together with a plan for education on how to perform this type of assessment. Our proposition is presented in this report. Based on a number of case studies of impact assessment recently performed at the Agency we have assessed what kind of information that needs to be included in their impact assessments. We have also investigated which methods are used internationally, and by the Swedish Transport Administration, to perform this type of analysis. Using this information we present a draft for a calculation handbook based on the experience and material used at the Swedish Transport Administration. We also present an education plan. However, since there is a difference between issues related to investments in infrastructure and management issues, we also suggest a plan for development of the calculation handbook and its use within the Agency.
The purpose is to provide a background for a discussion concerning the methods and values used in cost-benefit analysis in Sweden for air pollutions', from traffic, impact on human health and the research needs in this area. We provide an overview of the current state of the art of models used for and input needed for external cost calculations of the health impacts. The calculations are not straightforward and depend on the collaboration between several research disciplines. In the ExternE projects, which have been used as a reference point in this study, there are still uncertainties concerning which pollutants to take into consideration. Regarding the health impacts, we have recapitulated some of the main conclusions in a review by the American Heart Association (2010). They state that e.g. the following issues need further research: the importance of ultrafine particles, what constituent parts make traffic related air pollution more harmful than PM2.5 in general and the importance of coarse particles.
In this paper we discuss, based on research on the external cost of air pollution, if diesel as a fuel in the transport sector should be encouraged or discouraged in Swedish environmental policy. There are two main reasons for posing this question. The first is the international context where the use of diesel is generally considered to be a bad, due to its negative health effects. The second is the Swedish context with an ambitious vision for a fossil free vehicle fleet in 2030 where the use of diesel produced from forestry residues could be part of the solution. In recent years the use of diesel cars has been encouraged by various policy measures, for example a subsidy based on assessments of emissions for CO2 per kilometer. Is this a policy that should be continued or abandoned? In this paper we focus on the health impacts and our conclusion is that dieselization is more a blessing than a curse. The reason is that Sweden is a sparsely populated country and therefore the health costs of emissions from road transport are low by international standards.
This report presents the basis and calculations for the subproject air pollution carried out within the framework of VTI’s second government commission on traffic economic costs (Samkost2). In this study, we have estimated marginal external costs of air pollution with the method developed and used in the EU for this purpose, the so-called “Impact Pathway Approach”, focusing on the importance and the impact on the ecosystem and emissions from shipping.
In the earlier study of air pollution in Samkost was concluded that a largely unexplored question was how much the transport sector contributes to secondary pollution and the impact these have on population exposure and impact on the ecosystem. It was found that this is an important issue because it is these pollutants that are the focus of the EU’s air quality policy. To carry out impact assessments of the proposals at EU level in this field, and to compare the results of different studies, it is important to clarify the pollution that has been the basis for the analysis.
For this reason, the focus of Samkost2 on air pollution became how to perform calculations for the secondary pollutants. There was also a desire to gain more knowledge about the marginal costs of emissions from Swedish shipping, and on how impacts on ecosystems can be included in these calculations. To carry out these calculations required information in the form of dispersion modelling. Therefore, SMHI was commissioned to provide data on emissions at sea and their dispersion. Due to time constraints, since this VTI’s commission had a deadline and dispersion modelling involves complex calculation that requires time, the calculations got adapted to the restrictions of the commission. Only emissions from Swedish shipping and not from the other modes were included. To get some information about geographical differences in the impact of emissions that occur in different places separate calculations for three different areas was conducted; Skagerrak and Kattegat, the Baltic Sea south of Åland and the Baltic Sea north of the Åland Islands. Specific effects, i.e. exposure, were only modelled for the population and not for different types of ecosystems.
Road traffic makes important contributions to the pollution levels in urban areas. Of the pollutants, particulate matter, makes the greatest contribution to the external cost due to their detrimental impact on human health. Economic policy measures such as road pricing can be used for the regulation of traffic, thereby improving local air quality, but there is often a large resistance towards these types of measures. The purpose of this study has been to investigate if it is likely that the health impact of traffic emissions influences the acceptance for road pricing. In this study we have done a literature survey to explore this issue. The conclusion is that it is unlikely that the health impact influences the acceptance. An important reason is that the public knowledge about this health impact is low and therefore the health risks are underestimated. We have also found that there is a need for deeper investigation into people´s knowledge about traffic emissions and their health impact and how this in turn influences their decisions regarding policy measures, such as road pricing that aims at reducing the health impact. The conclusion is that the best method for this would be a so-called Stated Preference study.
The Swedish government, despite a possible value conflict with the ambitious Swedish climate mitigation objectives, has stated that tourism development is an important basis for economic growth, not least in rural areas. This paper explores how the Swedish policy making system, and ambitious environmental and traffic safety objectives, influence transport investment planning at the regional level. Our point of reference for evaluating the system is the work with good regulatory policy advocated by the OECD and used by the EU. The main finding is that the Swedish government and parliament lack a strategic “whole-of-government approach” to sustainable transport development. There are many principles and objectives with good intentions established at the national level that are incompatible in practice. The conflicts that follow are handed down to lower government levels to solve with best wishes. The problem with this type of management is the “tragedy of the commons.” Without clear guidance, individuals (and administrations) acting independently and rationally based on self-interests are likely to behave contrary to the best interests of the whole group (society).
Making choices based on a more holistic assessment of impacts and benefits and costs could help to prevent this kind of outcome. However, from the data collected it appears that many investments are undertaken without being assessed due to the lack of government instructions on regulatory impact assessment. Other investments are undertaken despite having a negative net benefit. One reason for this is specific instructions given by the government that points to certain investments. Another reason seems to be the Vision Zero policy established by the parliament. In recent years this policy has been a strong driver of improvements of the road system. Seen from an environmental perspective, the unwanted consequence of the priorities made is that state roads become faster and safer and thereby a more attractive alternative to other travel modes. Seen from a regional development and tourism perspective, this may have diverted resources away from investments that would have yielded a greater benefit to the tourism industry in “rural” areas.
I Sverige antogs en ny Luftkvalitetsförordning i juni 2010 (2010:477). Den reglerar vilka ämnen som omfattas av miljökvalitetsnormer för luftkvalitet samt hur detta styrmedel ska tillämpas. Enligt denna förordning ansvarar kommunerna för att kontrollera luftkvaliteten för de flesta miljökvalitetsnormerna, i samverkan eller på egen hand. Dalarnas Luftvårdsförbund samordnar detta arbete i Dalarna och de arbetar nu med att utforma ett nytt program. Ett sådant program ska baseras på den kunskap som finns om luftkvaliteten i samverkansområdet. I denna rapport beskrivs resultaten från den övervakning som skett fram till nu och utifrån detta diskuteras vad ett nytt program för övervakning av luftkvalitet behöver innehålla. I Dalarna är det risk för överskridande av nedre utvärderingströskeln (NUT) för partiklar och kvävedioxid på vissa gator i Borlänge respektive Falun. Det finns även risk för överskridande av miljökvalitetsnormen för kvävedioxid (det svenska gränsvärdet för dag och timme) i Falun. Detta innebär att Falun åtminstone måste ha en mätstation för kvävedioxid. Eftersom övre utvärderingströskeln (ÖUT) överskrids måste denna kompletteras med ytterligare en mätstation alternativt modellering på någon plats i samverkansområdet. För partiklar gäller att NUT överskrids och därmed måste det finnas två mätstationer i samverkansområdet. Risk för överskridande av NUT finns inte för övriga ämnen och därmed kan enklare mätning alternativt modellering användas för dessa. Programmet bör utformas för att både övervaka långsiktiga förändringar och ge underlag för att bedöma om behov finns för genomförande av åtgärder. Detta sker genom fasta mätpunkter som är strategiskt placerade på platser där det kan förmodas vara för länet högsta halter. Om miljökvalitetsnormer eller den övre eller nedre utvärderingströskeln inte överskrids på dessa platser är sannolikheten liten att halter av aktuella föroreningar överskrids på andra platser i länet. Vid dessa mätstationer samlas även information om aktiviteter som bidrar till halter av luftföroreningar för att mätningarna ska kunna användas för att kalibrera modeller för förhållanden i Dalarna. Eftersom Falun och Borlänge är tätorterna med högst halter bör de fasta mätstationer som lagen kräver ska finnas i samverkansområdet placeras där. I Falun måste mätning av kvävedioxid genomföras medan Borlänge har störst problem med partiklar. Det är därför lämpligt att mätning av kvävedioxid sker i Falun (gärna två platser som representerar gatunivå och urban bakgrund) medan mätningar av partiklar på motsvarande sätt sker i Borlänge (gatunivå för PM 10 och urban bakgrund för PM2,5). Givet att annan relevant information som trafikarbete samlas in vid mätpunkterna kommer denna information kunna användas för att både använda och kalibrera modeller. Utöver dessa fasta mätstationer behöver kontroll av luftkvalitet genomföras med jämna mellanrum i andra kommuner i länet. Detta kan ske genom ambulerande mätningar, alternativ modelleringar, på olika platser i länet som utformas utifrån lokala behov. Exempel på sådana lokala behov är att kommunerna bedriver tillsyn och de har exempelvis skyldighet att övervaka betydelsen av småskalig vedeldning för luftkvaliteten. Eftersom detta är en källa med begränsad lokal påverkan är det svårt att fånga dess inverkan genom centralt placerade mätstationer. Det finns även variationer över tid i trafikarbetet som kan leda till förhöjda halter på vissa platser periodvis. Även bidraget från olika industrier kan vara intressant att kartlägga mer i detalj för att ge underlag för arbetet med tillsyn.
In 2012 the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) was commissioned by the government to develop and establish a procedure and methodology for national risk assessment in Sweden. In 2013 MSB continued this work and also initiated work to develop a more coherent and reliable process for producing national risk and capability assessments. An assignment was therefore given to VTI where the questions was how economics can be implemented in practice in this more comprehensive work. To provide a basis for discussion, the current system for national risk- and capability assessments undertaken by the public sector is described in the beginning of the report. Next, based on findings in the scientific literature, the report contains a discussion of how economics can be of use in risk assessment and management. Since cost-benefit analysis is the analytical tool used, this overview also contains a short summary on how to perform this type of analysis. Based on this background information a method is proposed on how to analyze a decision problem in this kind of risk context. The method comprises the following logical steps: - Scenario analysis to develop an analytical model of the risk context focusing on a description of the capabilities needed to reduce the probability of and the consequences of a certain hazard. - Capability assessment to quantify the current level of the relevant capabilities. - GAP-analysis to identify if there is a lack of important capabilities and if so, what measures that can address these insufficiencies. - Cost-benefit analysis to evaluate different policy measures to improve the capability. - Stress test and evaluation to test the functioning of the risk management system and the effect of the policy changes made. The analytical model developed in the first step can be used for this purpose.
This paper investigates how past experience influences choice behaviour and valuation in a hypothetical travel mode choice situation. Using a stated choice question asked of visitors to a major ski resort in Sweden, the author explores whether an individual's choice behaviour, when he or she is offered a comfort improvement to train travel, can be explained with reference to the individual and to the circumstances of his or her previous journey.
The analysis models and compares the response behaviour of travellers who used a car and travellers who used the train on their original trip. It is found that past experience influences travellers' choice behaviour. Twenty per cent of former car users choose the train, while most train users again choose the train. As reasons for choosing car travel once again, car users mention a preference for shorter travel time and/or a preference for flexibility, while environmental concerns and long travel distance favour the use of the train. Concerning comfort improvement, as expected, willingness-to-pay estimates for the former train users are lower and more precise than those for the former car users.
This report presents the basis and calculations for the subproject air pollution carried out within the framework of VTI’s third government commission on traffic economic costs (Samkost 3). We have in this study estimated marginal external costs of air pollution with the method developed and used in the EU for this purpose, the so-called “Impact Pathway Approach”, focusing on the importance and the impact of air traffic in Sweden. These calculations require dispersion- and exposure modelling and SMHI was therefore commissioned to provide data from this type of calculations based on the MATCH model.
Due to time constraints, since this VTI’s commission had a deadline and this work involves complex calculation that requires time, the calculations got adapted to the restrictions of the commission. Separate calculations were done for flight at different heights (LTO, low and high cruise) and only for traffic in the Swedish air space. Separate modelling was done with total reduction of all emissions from this traffic, but also when only NOx from air traffic was reduced. Finally, we tested the influence of the geographical area used in the modelling.
lean air is one of 16 Environmental Objectives adopted by the Swedish parliament to guide action towards a sustainable environment. This project is part of the work undertaken by the Swedish Environment Protection Agency (Swedish EPA) to bring about the fulfilment of this goal. Much research has been undertaken regarding air pollution and health impacts in the adult population but much less is known about how pollutants influence children’s health. The overriding purpose of this study has therefore been to see how and to what extent the economic benefit from reducing these impacts can be calculated. To answer this question we provide a brief introduction on the method commonly used to do these kinds of benefit calculations. Two crucial inputs into these calculations are estimates of the health impacts and estimates of the economic values for the health impacts. We therefore start by providing a summary of the current stateof-art regarding these inputs which is based on a survey of the literature in each area. We then perform two case studies that describe how these economic benefits can be calculated and what influences the results. The calculation is based on the findings in the literature reviews and we also describe the exposure assessment that is another crucial input into these calculations. The report ends with suggestions for future research. Regarding air pollution and health impacts, the finding is that air pollution exposure has been associated with a number of health outcomes in children, many of these partly overlapping and related to respiratory effects. Both long-term exposure and short-term fluctuations have been correlated with adverse effects. However, the involved exposure variables are often not source specific, but may in some cases act as acceptable indicators of traffic related air pollution. Only for a limited number of health effects we have found exposure-response functions that may be used to quantify health effects in children. Most of these have been described also in a previous report (Naturvårdsverket, 2010). New for this report is an estimated exposure-response function for the development of air-way disease in the 5-18 age group. For the short-term effects such as hospital admissions, it is possible to calculate baseline frequencies needed for the impact assessments from register data. It is more complicated to estimate the baseline in terms of prevalence (occurrence of disease) or onset of disease, but some types of impacts can be estimated using combinations of data and assumptions. On the relationship between traffic pollution and restricted activity days (for example school absences), effects on pregnancy outcome and in infancy as well as effects of early exposure later in life there is limited information. As for the economic valuation of health impacts, the conclusion in the literature is that the valuation of children’s health risks is more challenging than that of adults. There are several reasons for this where children not being able to assess and value risk reductions by themselves is the most important one. There is however also the difference in age between children and adults which is likely to make a difference for the values. As in the case of the quantification of health impacts, little research has been done on the valuation of children’s health risks. Therefore, so far mainly proxies have been used such as willingness to pay estimates derived from parents’ choices and behaviour. The general conclusion is that economic values used for adults in general underestimate the benefits to children and that as high as two times these estimates can be relevant. Since almost no economic valuation studies of this kind have been undertaken in Sweden the estimates we propose are those used in other, mainly European, studies. Based on the findings in the literature surveys we have, as an example, calculated the benefit of a reduction in children’s exposure of 1 µg/m³ of NO2 in Stockholm and Umeå. The difference between the cities that we could account for was the number of children that are exposed. The calculation was done for two endpoints; that children having wheeze develop asthma and that asthmatic children are admitted to hospital due to respiratory symptoms. According to our calculations this reduction in exposure in Greater Stockholm would generate a benefit to society of 168 million SEK per year because of fewer cases of asthma, and 47 000 SEK due to fewer hospital admissions (for the price levels in 2000). For Umeå the benefits are smaller, 8 million SEK and 2000 SEK per year. These benefit estimates however are based on a quite large reduction in air pollution. 1 µg/m³ NO2 is approximately the reduction in population exposure that resulted in the inner city of Stockholm from the trial with congestion charges where traffic in this area decreased by 15%. To achieve the same reduction in Greater Stockholm or Umeå would require measures that result in quite important emission reductions from transport. To determine if such measures are beneficial from a socioeconomic point of view would require a comparison of benefits and costs on the local scale of the chosen measures. In general it is found in the literature that the benefits are larger when emissions are reduced in densely populated areas. We also discuss how different assumptions influence the results and the uncertainties related to these types of calculations. There are uncertainties in every part of the calculation chain; exposure, impact assessment and economic valuation. One way to account for these uncertainties is by doing a sensitivity analysis where alternative assumptions are used for important inputs. In our calculations an influential assumption is for example the probability that children with wheeze develop asthma later in life. The largest uncertainty however is probably the cause and effect of single pollutants. In this study NO2 is used since it is a good indicator of emissions from traffic but if this is the true cause of the effects is still a matter of research and discussion. This is the first attempt to calculate the benefits for children in Sweden of reducing air pollution. Due to lack of data we have only been able to give an indication of the size of the benefits and only for endpoints related to respiratory diseases. Therefore, further research is needed in order to determine the accuracy of these estimates, the size of the benefit for other endpoints and all children in Sweden and how the benefits vary between different geographical areas. However we consider such research to be warranted since our estimates suggests that reducing children’s exposure to air pollution result in important economic benefits and there is a need for policy makers to know if and when this is the case.
This paper measures the external health cost due to emissions from different sources in the Stockholm area using the Impact pathway approach. The estimated health impact is the result of detailed dispersion modelling with high spatial resolution. We make separate calculations for the impact that occur within the Stockholm area, the surrounding region and the rest of Europe. The pollutants considered are combustion and secondary particulate matter (PM) from the burning of fuels and also road wear (non-exhaust PM) that makes a large contribution to measured concentrations of PM locally in Stockholm. We also investigate the influence of assumptions made regarding the exposure-response functions used in these calculations since PM of different origin are expected to have different health impacts. According to the results road traffic makes important contributions to the external health cost both on a local and a regional scale compared to other sources. This is in part due to emissions being released in close proximity to where people live but also because of the amount of pollutants emitted. Although non-exhaust PM makes a large contribution to local population exposure within Stockholm the external health cost is relatively small which is due to other health impact being relevant for this emission source. Residential heating also makes an important contribution to exposure and external health cost on a local scale while power plants have a large influence regionally.
It has long been recognized that emissions from traffic have a negative impact on human health. In recent years there has been emerging consensus that the main influence is due to particulate matter. From an economic point of view these negative effects are external costs caused by traffic that, if not accounted for in decision making regarding transport, will result in a non-optimal allocation of resources leading to welfare losses. To be able to implement road pricing measures, but also for the evaluation of other control measures through benefit-cost analysis, information on the external cost of traffic emissions is needed. In the Impact pathway approach (IPA), that has been developed in the ExternE projects, the external cost is calculated as the product of exposure, effect and value. In this study the effect we focus on is health impacts (mortality). Regarding particulate matter (PM) there is recognition among the research community that there are different types of PM and that it is likely that their impact on human health differs. Still the current practice is to treat fine PM (which are considered to be most detrimental to health) as equally harmful irrespective of origin. In the TESS project the purpose has been to investigate how important the external health cost of road traffic generated PM is in relation to the cost of other sources of PM. To do this we have both investigated how the exposure varies between sources but also assessed if it is reasonable to assume that the impact differs between PM from different sources. Whether or not to assume that PM of different origin is equally harmful is of particular interest in Sweden where non-exhaust PM makes a large contribution to the concentrations of PM in urban areas. In the project we have used Stockholm as a case study and we have focused on mortality since this is the health impact that has been found to have the largest impact on health cost in other studies.
In December 2012, the Swedish government commissioned VTI to update the social marginal cost for using infrastructure for all modes of transport based on state-of-the-art knowledge in the research community. The task only involved state roads. In this report we present the data used and the results for the external costs of air pollution (exhaust emissions) and noise. We have used the Impact Pathway Approach to perform the calculations using Swedish data focusing on health. In these calculations we have placed particular emphasis on how the influence of population density in the vicinity of roads influence the results from these calculations. For noise we developed an exposure function based on the new EU-CNOSSOS model which accounted for the location of buildings close to a road while for air pollution we used results based on detailed calculations in the Stockholm area. The results, using updated input data from 2012 on kilometers driven, emissions factors from HBEFA etc., are in line with those presented in the EU handbook from 2014 “Update of the Handbook on External Costs of Transport” but lower than those currently used in analysis of transport investments in Sweden (the so called ASEK-values). An important reason for this is that we have used more detailed information on population exposure. We have also concluded that there are geographical differences in the external cost for air pollution between the north and the south of Sweden. For both air and noise emissions there is also a difference between urban and rural areas. Based on the results we conclude that there are a number of issues where further research is needed, for example the possible interaction of air pollution and noise on human health. There are also still questions regarding the dispersion of emissions and population exposure and how this varies between cities and within cities in Sweden, depending on for example meteorological conditions. For air pollution there is also the question of the formation of secondary pollutants and their dispersion pattern and if they contribute to an external environmental cost in addition to health. One particular source of emissions in Sweden is the used of studded tyres which contribute to very high concentration levels of particulate matter close to roads in springtime. Since the focus in this study was on state roads we have not addressed this pollutant in this report.
Sweden has since the end of the 1990s, when the environmental objective system was adopted, had the ambitionof being an environmental frontrunner. In line with this, in 2009 the Parliament adopted the goal of achieving afossil free vehicle fleet in 2030. Replacing private car use with public transport is expected to contribute to thisgoal. In 2008, a co-operation between actors in the public transport sector was launched with support from theGovernment with the aim to double its use. Sweden however is a country with important geographical differ-ences. Much of the country is sparsely populated, especially in the north. From previous research it is well knownthat usage of public transport is dependent on population density and accessibility to employment and schools.Understanding how spatial differences influence the cost of public transport provision is therefore crucial whendiscussing if public transport is a cost-efficient way to achieve national goals for the transport sector. In thispaper, Swedish county level panel data, including variables that provide information on geographical differencesbetween the counties, have been used to estimate average marginal costs of boardings. Results show that theseare much lower in the three counties with the largest urbanized areas. In the other counties there is a variationwhich illustrates that there are a number of factors that influence the average marginal costs. In relation to policy, we find that the doubling ambition established in 2008 has not been achieved.
Sustainable development implies that society’s limited resources should be used efficiently, taking into account the various impacts on society – social, economic and environmental. To achieve established societal goals efficiently, various aspects have to be accounted for in the design of policy measures. Within the EU a Regulatory Impact Assessment, where a cost-benefit analysis is included, needs to accompany all major regulatory initiatives. According to research and different policy assessment, Sweden lacks an established praxis regarding this type of analysis in the area of environmental policy but also in the field of energy and transport. The purpose of this project is to investigate how Sweden uses this type of information in the negotiations that take place within the EU regarding policy proposals but also investigate the reasons for use or non-use. The focus is on what role the organization and the bureaucrats play for the collection of this type of information.
The overall conclusion that can be drawn from the three sub-studies included in the project, as well as the discussion at the closing seminar, is that this is not an established way of working in the Swedish government system. This can be explained by lack of competence, an established mistrust, management by objectives and lack of an institutional framework for when and how this type of broader impact assessment is to be conducted. At the closing seminar, the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency presented that it is now working on a guide to help officials to analyze at an early stage whether there is a need for regulation by society, to initiate the work by asking the question “What is the problem?”. We think that this is a step in the right direction, but we also see that the economists working out in government are often alone or very few and may therefore need different forms of support to develop the work on this kind of, often complex, analysis.
In 2002 the external costs of air pollution from the Swedish transport sector were calculated using the methodology developed within the EU-funded ExternE-projects. A comparison of these estimates with those presently in use in Swedish transport analysis revealed important differences, especially for particulate matter. The main purpose of this project was to examine the calculations for Stockholm in the Swedish ExternE-study and based on the findings from this examination propose a method to be used for the cost calculation for pollutants with local impacts. In addition, the methods used for the cost calculation for pollutants with regional impact should be described. In the report, the results are presented in two parts. In the first part, the method we propose for the cost calculation for pollutants with local impact is presented. We suggest that the calculation is based on three components; exposure estimates, effects estimates and values. The product of these three gives the final cost. In this part of the report we also present the approaches currently used to calculate the cost for pollutants with a regional impact. In part two of the report we present in greater detail the findings from the examination of the calculations for Stockholm in the Swedish ExternE-study.
By performing RIA, the risk of imposing a proposal that is inefficient or leads to sub-optimization is reduced. In the EU this approach to regulatory policy making was introduced in 2002 and it is a crucial component of the Better Regulation Agenda. However the practical implementation of this approach in Member States is varied; Sweden has not implemented the full RIA process. Currently there is a focus on the reduction of administrative burdens for businesses. This paper describes the present use of RIA and CBA in the Swedish planning context and discusses the reasons for and the consequences of current practices. Using the Swedish transport regulator as a case study, the paper considers the following aspects; i) the Swedish planning context and existing requirements regarding the use of RIA, ii) current focus of research regarding CBA for infrastructure investments in the Swedish transport sector and the need for greater focus on issues concerning regulation, iii) the difficulty to quantify and place monetary values on effects, which also increases when unique, complex and uncertain situations are assessed and iv) the need for the alignment of incentives at all levels and across agencies.
To achieve effective regulation, the OECD and the European Commission recommend the use of regulatory impact assessment (RIA). The full RIA process has however not been implemented in Sweden. There is for example a lack of established practices at the national level for the analysis of risk in regulatory work. Instead, soft law in the form of management by objective systems is guiding transport and environmental policy. These systems were introduced in the end of the 1990s following the international discussion on the precautionary principle. According to findings in other countries, policy making based on the precautionary principle may result in unexpected and unwanted consequences and therefore, based on a literature review and an assessment of current practices in transport regulation in Sweden, we suggest the use of an initial screening of hazards in regulatory work. We also apply the proposed method to four transport related case studies to illustrate how an initial assessment can provide the basis for an informed discussion on what hazards to counteract with regulation and on what grounds.
Syftet med denna studie har varit att genom några beräkningsexempel klargöra hur de externa kostnaderna för luftföroreningar varierar mellan transportslag och geografi i Sverige, samt att tydliggöra vilka faktorer som ligger bakom dessa skillnader. Syftet är också att sätta in dessa resultat i en internationell kontext för att beskriva hur den svenska situationen förhåller sig till den som råder i andra länder både när det gäller miljöproblemen som orsakas av utsläpp till luft men också arbetet med att utforma miljöarbetet baserat på denna kunskap. Det senare är viktigt för att kunna föra en diskussion om hur Sverige påverkas av och kan bidra till internationellt luftvårdsarbete, framförallt inom EU eftersom den största påverkan av utsläpp från transportsektorn i Sverige sker inom Europa. Vi har i arbetet med SAMKOST studerat effekter på såväl lokal som regional nivå utifrån den metodik som tillämpas inom EU där hälsoeffekter utvärderas baserat på marginella haltförändringar i det som kallas urban eller regional bakgrund. De underlag som tagits fram i SAMKOST-projekten skiljer sig därför från flertalet svenska studier som oftast bedömer effekterna av den totala halten utan hänsyn till källa eller åtgärd. De modelleringar som är grunden för beräkningarna har genomförts av SMHI vilket säkerställer att resultaten är jämförbara mellan de olika transportslagen.
Disaster risk management is an example of a public good where political decisions determine the content and extent of the services provided. For the policy maker the question is how much to spend on these services since resources are limited. The question addressed in this report is how economic analysis, including cost-benefit analysis, can be used in order to achieve an efficient level of these services The report is commissioned by the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency. It is a contribution to their work with development of a methodology for National Risk Assessments and Disaster Risk Management. The former is prepared in response to an EU directive. According to the EU commission: Risk assessment and mapping are carried out within the broader context of disaster risk management. Risk assessment and mapping are the central components of a more general process which furthermore identifies the capacities and resources available to reduce the identified levels of risk, or the possible effects of a disaster (capacity analysis), and considers the planning of appropriate risk mitigation measures (capability planning), the monitoring and review of hazards, risks, and vulnerabilities, as well as consultation and communication of findings and results. This report starts with a description of the current work with disaster risk management in Sweden and changes in the organization that has taken place in recent years. It also describes the evolution and use of economic analysis, including cost-benefit analysis, in policy making in different contexts. Based on these overviews it is concluded that economic analysis is rarely used in practical policy making regarding public goods in Sweden, and it has not previously been used in decisions concerning disaster risk management. Therefore, based on a literature review, we present a basic economic model that can be used in this context to define what a policy measure is and the aspects that needs to be considered in an economic evaluation of such measures. Furthermore we provide an example of how a method developed for economic analysis proposed by OECD, Regulatory Impact Assessment, can be applied to this kind of decision making. In the example we use information collected in a risk assessment made regarding the impact of climate change for one of the largest rivers in Sweden, Göta Älv. It is concluded that economic analysis can provide important information to this type of decision making, not the least through providing structure to the collection of information. However, further work is needed before this type of analysis can be used in practical policy making and the report ends with suggestions for further development work.
This study is based on the questions raised by Folksam on how well the criteria currently used reflect the total environmental impact of exhaust emissions. One of the questions is whether diesel cars, being more fuel efficient, are preferable to gasoline cars given the differences in for example particle and NO2 emissions. In this paper we give an overview of the method used to calculate the external costs related to the exhaust emissions of cars, the Impact Pathway Approach (IPA). This type of assessment has previously been used to compare the environmental performance of gasoline versus diesel cars in a report by the former Swedish national road administration and in a recent paper on the taxation of cars in Belgium. We also provide an overview of recent research on the inputs used in these calculations. Based on information on emission tests of VW cars and information from the Swedish Transport Administration, we illustrate how different aspects influence the outcome of these calculations regarding exhaust emissions from cars. Regarding the specific question raised in this study about indicators for sustainable cars, we find that the indicators currently used, CO2 emissions, do not reflect the full environmental impact. Different types of vehicle technologies result in different combinations of emissions. With the large variety of car models, and with important differences between type approval and ”real driving” emissions, we conclude that apart from CO2 emissions, vehicle technology should be accounted for in the classification of cars. Concerning the difference between gasoline and diesel vehicles, important aspects to consider are: • differences in emissions of particulates where particle size or number and composition may be important to consider in addition to, or maybe even rather than, mass, • the difference in the ratio between NOx and NO2, as it affects local NO2 and ozone concentrations.
In recent years large efforts have been devoted in EU-funded research projects, i.e. the ExternE-projects, to the development of an approach that can be used to estimate the external costs of air pollution. The calculation in these projects is based on the so called Impact pathway approach where the impacts from air pollution are assessed and valued. This approach has now been used to estimate the cost of air pollution of transport in Sweden for the year 2000. In addition, we have used abatement cost estimates to include the costs due to acidification and eutrophication. This is a joint project between VTI, TFK and IER at the University of Stuttgart. This report presents and discusses the results from this project, "the all-modes study", regarding air pollutants with a local and regional dispersion. It also relates the results from this project to cost estimates in other studies. Cost estimates have been calculated for all transport modes. For road transport, estimates were calculated for extra urban and urban traffic and also for two cases, Skellefteå and Stockholm. The purpose was to obtain information on the variation in costs between different traffic situations. Such information is an input in the evaluation of infrastructure investments and is also a basis for marginal cost pricing. The costs vary since there is a large number of variables that influence the estimates. Costs will depend upon which pollutant we consider and where the emissions occur. Costs will also depend upon other relationships such as the number of people being asthmatics in a population and the value placed on an asthma attack. For the latter, the assumptions used in the all-modes study are the same as those used in the EU-funded UNITE-project.
Denna studie är en del i ett forskningsprojekt vid VTI kallat "Implementering av marginalkostnadsprissättning i transportsektorn - problem med variabilitet, differentiering, interdependens och osäkerhet". Denna studie ingår i delprojektet luftföroreningar som ska behandla miljöproblem i form av utsläpp som sprids via luften och som är kopplade till användningen av transportsystemet. Meningen med denna förstudie är att ge en översikt över de problem med luftburna föroreningar från fordon som finns idag och vilka metoder som idag används för att beräkna marginalkostnaderna av dessa, samt diskutera vad som ytterligare behöver utforskas utifrån perspektivet av en framtida marginalkostnadsprissättning av transporter. Vi behandlar dock inte klimatpåverkande gaser i detta arbete av två skäl; dels för att dessa effekter är så vittomspännande vilket gör kostnadsberäkningen oerhört osäker, dels för att de kostnader som de ger upphov till inte varierar beroende på var utsläppen sker eftersom påverkan är global. Vi har i studien delvis fokuserat på en modell för beräkning av transportsektors marginalkostnader som tagits fram i ett europeiskt projekt, ExternE Core/Transport. Detta eftersom denna modell baserar sig på aktuell kunskap och även används för att beräkna kostnaderna för transporter på europeisk nivå. I vissa delar har vi jämfört beräkningarna i den modellen med de beräkningar som de nu aktuella svenska värdena baserar sig på.
Jordbruksverket och Havs- och vattenmyndigheten har gemensamt tagit fram en strategi för utvecklingen av svenskt fritidsfiske och fisketurism fram till 2020. Där anges ett antal mål varav i första hand två är anledningen till att denna studie initierats. Dessa två mål är:
Denna studie har genomförts på Jordbruksverkets uppdrag. Syftet har varit att beskriva den forskning som pågår och de kompletterande forskningsbehov som finns med utgångspunkt från det uppdrag Jordbruksverket har att främja utvecklingen av fritidsfisket och fisketurismen. Det har också ingått att kartlägga och presentera goda exempel på fisketuristisk verksamhet och att utifrån dessa exempel beskriva vilket värde olika typer av sportfiske och fisketurism kan generera i olika typer av vatten. Det övergripande syftet är att identifiera och kommunicera framgångsfaktorer bakom lönsam fisketuristisk verksamhet och därigenom bidra till en utveckling av branschen och förutsättningarna att bo, leva och verka på landsbygden. För att uppfylla detta syfte har också förutsättningarna för att bedriva sådan verksamhet undersökts. I studien har sex goda exempel på fisketuristisk verksamhet i olika delar av landet fått beskriva sin verksamhet, dess förutsättningar och hinder.
We explore the changes in central government administration due to European Union (EU) membership and its consequences for policy outcomes and economic efficiency in Finland and Sweden. Both countries became members of the EU in 1995. Upon joining the union, member states are expected to adopt common legislation and are encouraged to develop similar rule-making procedures. The actual implementation of EU directives varies considerably between member states, however. This is also the case for Finland and Sweden. Despite the two Nordic countries for historical reasons having had similar government systems, upon becoming members of the EU, they started to diverge. Using a model of delegation and comparing the more centralized Finnish system with the decentralized institutional setup in Sweden, we show that the Swedish approach leads to a stricter than optimal environmental policy, which in turn makes EU policy non-optimal from a global point of view, ceteris paribus. We also provide empirical support for our findings in the form of some example cases. We focus on environmental policy since this is an area that has been high on the EU agenda. © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis.
This article explores the changes in central government administration due to European Union (EU) membership and their consequences for policy outcomes and economic efficiency in Finland and Sweden. Both countries became members of the EU in 1995. Upon joining the union, member states are expected to adopt common legislation and encouraged to develop similar rule-making procedures. The actual implementation of EU directives varies considerably between member states, however. This is also the case for Finland and Sweden. Despite the two Nordic countries for historical reasons having had similar government systems, upon becoming members of the EU they started to diverge. Using a model of delegation and comparing the more centralized Finnish system with the decentralized institutional setup in Sweden, we show that the Swedish approach leads to stricter than optimal environmental policy, which in turn makes EU policy non-optimal from a global point of view, ceteris paribus. We also provide empirical support for our findings in the form of some example-cases. We focus on environmental policy since this is an area that has been high on the EU agenda.
This report is a result of the research undertaken in the project TESS - Traffic Emissions, Socioeconomic valuation and Socioeconomic measures. In this report, we have studied the cost-effectiveness of particulate matter (PM) reductions from local emission sources in the Stockholm area. The input in the analysis is cost and effectiveness data collected from other studies and reports on reductions in emissions from traffic and residential heating. Contrary to other cost-effectiveness studies we have also included abatement measures where the effect is mainly due to adaptations in behavior. One example is congestion charging that we have assumed have a zero cost. We have also investigated the effect of different targeting strategies. Either the focus is on achieving air quality limit values for PM10 or the focus is on improvement in human health. In the first case we have assumed that the aim is to reduce emissions of PM10. In the second case the aim has been formulated as a reduction of the number of years of life lost (YOLL) in the population that would result if we reduce the concentrations of particulate matter in the city. The cost-effective analysis is done with a simple linear programming model. According to our results, congestion charging, a change to low-emission vehicles and installation of accumulator tanks are the least cost abatement measures irrespective of the target used in the analysis. For congestion charging and low-emission vehicles this is due to the assumption made that the abatement cost is zero. Thereafter however, the choice of measures depends on the choice of target. While less use of studded tires is efficient in order to reduce PM10 emissions, this is not a measure that has a large impact on the reduction of YOLL. This result relies on the assumptions made regarding the mortality impact of non-exhaust PM versus combustion PM.