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A decision support system that incorporates price volatility in risk classifying regional food security
Dalarna University, School of Information and Engineering, Microdata Analysis.
Dalarna University, School of Information and Engineering, Microdata Analysis.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2317-9157
Dalarna University, School of Culture and Society, Economics.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-9748-9572
2020 (English)In: International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, ISSN 1466-8297, E-ISSN 1741-5241, Vol. 23, no 3/4, p. 223-235Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Let us consider a cooperative group of decision-makers striving to strategise against failing to attain a goal. The risk of failure depends on external factors and the decision-makers' assessment and acceptance of risk. Furthermore, the setting is complex, e.g. owing to multiple objectives and criteria, making it difficult for the individual decision-maker, as well as the group, to assess the risk in a coherent way. To aid humans in this situation formal risk frameworks have been developed. One such framework is UTADIS (UTilities Additives DIScriminantes) and the contribution of this paper is to complement this framework with objective measures of volatility. This is done in such a way that the original features of UTADIS are preserved. This paper demonstrates how objective time-series data can be exploited in groups' risk mitigating for a given decision problem. To illustrate how this solution is implemented we consider the problem of United Nations policy-makers in monitoring food security as a UN sustainable development goal. The aim of the policy makers is to classify countries into crisis groups, giving due importance to the price volatility of food staples. UTADIS is hereby applied for the purpose of developing a food price volatility classification model to satisfy the preferences of the decision-makers. The enhanced UTADIS method provides both the global risk scores of the countries and the utility threshold. This is achieved in an efficient manner, meaning that a minimised misclassification between the decision-makers' preferred classification and their authentic classification is obtained in just one iteration. The resulting marginal utility function is consequently accurate enough and validated to satisfy the preferences of the United Nations decision-makers in the making of classification on future datasets.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2020. Vol. 23, no 3/4, p. 223-235
Keywords [en]
price volatility; UTADIS; time series; classification; decision makers; risk.
National Category
Computer Systems
Research subject
Research Profiles 2009-2020, Complex Systems – Microdata Analysis
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:du-36423DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2020.114368Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85104618010OAI: oai:DiVA.org:du-36423DiVA, id: diva2:1543679
Note

Original title of paper in doctoral thesis: A Food Price Volatility Model for Country Risk Classification

Available from: 2021-04-12 Created: 2021-04-12 Last updated: 2025-10-09Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. A data-driven decision support system for coherency of experts’ judgment in complex classification problems: The case of food security as a UN sustainable development goal
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A data-driven decision support system for coherency of experts’ judgment in complex classification problems: The case of food security as a UN sustainable development goal
2018 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Everyday humans need to make individual or collective decisions. Often the decisions aim at achieving multiple goals (thus involving multiple criteria) and rely on the decision maker(s)’ intuition, internal data, as well as external sources of data. Faced with a complex decision problem of this kind, it is a great challenge to decisionmakers to be logically coherent over time with regard to their preferences. To aid in achieving coherency, operation researchers and decision analysts have developed formal methods to support decision makers. One such method is the UTADIS method that serves as the workhorse for this thesis. I received the request from UN officials who had to manage the sustainable development goals while addressing the issue of food security. They wished for a decision support system (DSS) that could aid in their classification of countries to mitigate the risk of failing on food security. The virtue of the DSS should be that their expert judgment was complemented by formal methods for better risk classification. The UTADIS method was fitting for the purpose, but it lacked implementability. In particular, it required an iterative approach engaging the experts multiple times, while not readily lending itself to making use of external data, making it inefficient as a DSS. The fundamental contribution of this thesis is that I have solved these shortcomings of the UTADIS method, such that it now readily can be used in a functionally efficient way for the desired purpose of the UN. In solving these problems, it is also more broadly implementable as a DSS, as I have validated the artifact to a DSS, by use of several demonstrations and exposed it to sensitivity analysis.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Borlänge: Dalarna University, 2018
Series
Dalarna Doctoral Dissertations ; 8
Keywords
Coherence, Efficiency, Decision Support System, Multi-Criteria, Risk, Classification Model, Decision Makers, Judgment, Alternatives, Prediction, Data, Integrate, Imprecision, Food Security, UTADIS
National Category
Economics and Business Information Systems
Research subject
Research Profiles 2009-2020, Complex Systems – Microdata Analysis
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:du-28649 (URN)978-91-85941-79-7 (ISBN)
Public defence
2018-11-28, B311, Borlänge, 13:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2018-10-30 Created: 2018-10-01 Last updated: 2025-10-09Bibliographically approved

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Laryea, RuebenCarling, KennethCialani, Catia

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