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Is Public Bus Transport Electrification Socioeconomically Viable?: A Case Study of Dalarna
Dalarna University, School of Culture and Society.
Dalarna University, School of Culture and Society.
2025 (English)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

An attempt is made in this study to determine the socio-economic viability of substituting Dalarna's diesel-run public bus fleet by battery-electric ones, or e-buses. The ten-step approach given by Boardman et al. (2018) and valuation principles in ASEK 8.0 (Trafikverket, 2024) are followed, analyzing monetary and non-monetary costs and benefits for a time horizon of 15 years at a social discount rate of 3.5%. The dynamics evaluated within the cost-benefit structure capture capital investment, operational costs, emissions reduction, and health externalities due to pollutants being emitted. Additionally, a 10,000 iteration-based Monte Carlo simulation is conducted to test the strength of the outcome under uncertainty. The findings exhibit how despite the electrification bringing about substantially larger annual societal benefits in particular through emissions reductions of CO₂, NOₓ, and PM₂.₅, the heavy upfront investment costs result in an overall negative NPV in the current scenario. Such a scenario presently thereby renders an e-bus full-scale implementation an economically invalid choice in Dalarna. Nevertheless, the view should be accepted that under such longer-term developments as battery costs coming down, lifespans of technology being lengthened, or even changes being made to emission valuation mechanisms, the NPV may turn positive, suggesting that it should be looked at again in the future.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2025.
Keywords [en]
Public Transport Electrification, E-Buses, Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA), Welfare Economics, Environmental Externalities, Net Present Value (NPV), Medium-Sized Cities
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:du-50969OAI: oai:DiVA.org:du-50969DiVA, id: diva2:1986575
Subject / course
Economics
Available from: 2025-08-01 Created: 2025-08-01 Last updated: 2025-10-09

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • chicago-author-date
  • chicago-note-bibliography
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf