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BACKGROUND AND AIM: It is crucial to identify a diabetes diagnosis early. Create a predictive model utilizing machine learning (ML) to identify new cases of diabetes in primary health care (PHC).

METHODS: A case-control study utilizing data on PHC visits for sex-, age, and PHC-matched controls. Stochastic gradient boosting was used to construct a model for predicting cases of diabetes based on diagnostic codes from PHC consultations during the year before index (diagnosis) date and number of consultations. Variable importance was estimated using the normalized relative influence (NRI) score. Risks of having diabetes were calculated using odds ratios of marginal effects (OR_ME). Four groups by age and sex were studied, age-groups 35-64 years and ≥ 65 years in men and women, respectively.

RESULTS: The most important predictive factors were hypertension with NRI 21.4-29.7 %, and obesity 4.8-15.2 %. The NRI for other top ten diagnoses and administrative codes generally ranged 1.0-4.2 %.

CONCLUSIONS: Our data confirm the known risk patterns for predicting a new diagnosis of diabetes, and the need to test blood glucose frequently. To assess the full potential of ML for risk prediction purposes in clinical practice, future studies could include clinical data on life-style patterns, laboratory tests and prescribed medication.

Background: Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is characterized by coexisting risk factors for type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Diet is of importance in their aetiology, and gut microbiota (GM) may constitute a link between diet and metabolic health. Understanding the interplay between diet and GM could contribute novel insights for future dietary guidelines, and aid in preventive actions to motivate adherence to dietary guidelines. Objective: We intended to create a Swedish dietary guideline index (SweDGI) measuring adherence to 12 Swedish dietary guidelines and examine whether SweDGI and its components are associated with GM α-diversity (Shannon index) and prevalent MetS, and if the association between the Shannon index and MetS differs depending on SweDGI. Design: SweDGI was based on food-frequency data assessed 2014–2018 in 10,396 diabetes-free participants from the Malmö and Uppsala-sites of the Swedish CArdioPulmonary bioImage Study (SCAPIS) (50–64 y, 53% women). We estimated the Shannon index from shotgun metagenomic sequencing-data to assess microbial richness and evenness. We used a general linear model to examine cross-sectional SweDGI-Shannon associations and logistic regression for associations with MetS. Results: Most guidelines were followed by less than half of the participants. Men showed poorer adherence. Higher SweDGI was linked to higher Shannon index (P-trend across five SweDGI-groups = 1.7 × 10-12). Most guidelines contributed to this observation. Higher SweDGI and Shannon index were associated with lower MetSprevalence, where the lowest prevalence was observed among those with both high SweDGI and high Shannon index (odds ratio:0.43; 95% confidence interval:0.35, 0.52). Both the Shannon index and SweDGI were associated with MetS, independently of the level of the other factor (P-interaction = 0.82). Conclusions: We created a new index to comprehensively reflect adherence to the Swedish dietary guidelines in sub-cohorts within the large multicentre SCAPIS study. Better adherence was associated with a richer and more even GM and lower prevalence of MetS. The inverse association between the Shannon index and MetS was consistent at different levels of adherence to dietary guidelines. © 2024 Ulrika Ericson et al.

BACKGROUND: Previous population-based studies investigating the relationship between physical activity and the gut microbiota have relied on self-reported activity, prone to reporting bias. Here, we investigated the associations of accelerometer-based sedentary (SED), moderate-intensity (MPA), and vigorous-intensity (VPA) physical activity with the gut microbiota using cross-sectional data from the Swedish CArdioPulmonary bioImage Study.

METHODS: In 8416 participants aged 50-65, time in SED, MPA, and VPA were estimated with hip-worn accelerometer. Gut microbiota was profiled using shotgun metagenomics of faecal samples. We applied multivariable regression models, adjusting for sociodemographic, lifestyle, and technical covariates, and accounted for multiple testing.

FINDINGS: Overall, associations between time in SED and microbiota species abundance were in opposite direction to those for MPA or VPA. For example, MPA was associated with lower, while SED with higher abundance of Escherichia coli. MPA and VPA were associated with higher abundance of the butyrate-producers Faecalibacterium prausnitzii and Roseburia spp. We observed discrepancies between specific VPA and MPA associations, such as a positive association between MPA and Prevotella copri, while no association was detected for VPA. Additionally, SED, MPA and VPA were associated with the functional potential of the microbiome. For instance, MPA was associated with higher capacity for acetate synthesis and SED with lower carbohydrate degradation capacity.

INTERPRETATION: Our findings suggest that sedentary and physical activity are associated with a similar set of gut microbiota species but in opposite directions. Furthermore, the intensity of physical activity may have specific effects on certain gut microbiota species.

FUNDING: European Research Council, Swedish Heart-Lung Foundation, Swedish Research Council, Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation.

OBJECTIVES: Identify the windows of opportunity for the diagnosis of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and the prevention of its adverse outcomes and quantify the potential population gains of such prevention.

DESIGN AND SETTING: Observational, population-wide study of residents in the Stockholm and Skåne regions of Sweden between 1 January 2015 and 31 December 2020.

PARTICIPANTS: All patients who did not yet have a diagnosis of CKD in healthcare but had CKD according to laboratory measurements of CKD biomarkers available in electronic health records.

OUTCOME MEASURES: We assessed the proportions of the patient population that received a subsequent diagnosis of CKD in healthcare, that used guideline-directed pharmacological therapy (statins, renin-angiotensin aldosterone system inhibitors (RAASi) and/or sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i)) and that experienced adverse outcomes (all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality or major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE)). The potential to prevent adverse outcomes in CKD was assessed using simulations of guideline-directed pharmacological therapy in untreated subsets of the study population.

RESULTS: We identified 99 382 patients with undiagnosed CKD during the study period. Only 33% of those received a subsequent diagnosis of CKD in healthcare after 5 years. The proportion that used statins or RAASi was of similar size to the proportion that didn't, regardless of how advanced their CKD was. The use of SGLT2i was negligible. In simulations of optimal treatment, 22% of the 21 870 deaths, 27% of the 14 310 cardiovascular deaths and 39% of the 22 224 MACE could have been avoided if every patient who did not use an indicated medication for their laboratory-confirmed CKD was treated with guideline-directed pharmacological therapy for CKD.

CONCLUSIONS: While we noted underdiagnosis and undertreatment of CKD in this large contemporary population, we also identified a substantial realisable potential to improve CKD outcomes and reduce its burden by treating patients early with guideline-directed pharmacological therapy.

Background Plasma osteopontin (pOPN) is a promising aging-related biomarker among individuals with and without kidney disease. The interaction between sex, pOPN levels, and global and cardiorenal outcomes among older individuals was not previously evaluated.Methods In this study we investigated the association of pOPN with 24-month global mortality, major cardiovascular events (MACEs), MACEs + cardiovascular (CV) mortality, and renal decline among older individuals; we also evaluated whether sex modified observed associations. pOPN levels were measured in a cohort of 2013 outpatients (908 men and 1105 women) aged 75 years or more enrolled in the context of a multicenter prospective cohort study in Europe. Multivariable linear regression, Cox and Fine Gray models, and linear mixed regression models were fitted to evaluate whether sex modified the associations between biomarkers and study outcomes.Results In total, 2013 older participants with a median age of 79 years, 54.9% of whom women, were included in the study; increased pOPN levels were associated with all-cause mortality specifically among women [reduced fully adjusted model resulting from backward selection, hazard ratio, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.84, 1.20-2.89]. Addition of pOPN to models containing age, eGFR, and albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) improved the time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) at 6, 12, and 24 months, among women only. No significant association was found between the biomarker levels, MACE, and MACE + CV mortality. Conversely, increased baseline pOPN was associated with eGFR decline in all patients (-0.45, 95%CI: -0.68 to -0.22 ml/min/1.73 m2 year) but with slightly steeper declines in women compared to men (-0.57, -0.99 to -0.15 vs -0.47, -0.88 to -0.07).Conclusions pOPN levels were significantly lower in women than in men but associated with all-cause mortality in women only; increase in serum pOPN was associated with eGFR decline over time in all patients, but with stronger associations among women. Assessment of pOPN may help identifying older female participants at risk of poor outcomes.

INTRODUCTION: Proteomics may help discover novel biomarkers and underlying mechanisms for cardiovascular disease. This could be useful for childhood cancer survivors as they show an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. The aim of this study was to investigate circulating cardiovascular proteins in young adult survivors of childhood cancer and their relationship to previously reported subclinical cardiovascular disease.

METHODS: Ninety-two cardiovascular proteins were measured in 57 childhood cancer survivors and in 52 controls. For proteins that were significantly different between childhood cancer survivors and controls, we performed correlations between protein levels and measures of peripheral arterial stiffness (carotid distensibility and stiffness index, and augmentation index) and endothelial dysfunction (reactive hyperemia index).

RESULTS: Leptin was significantly higher in childhood cancer survivors compared to controls (normalized protein expression units: childhood cancer survivors 6.4 (1.5) versus 5.1 (1.7), p < 0.0000001) after taking multiple tests into account. Kidney injury molecule-1, MER proto-oncogene tyrosine kinase, selectin P ligand, decorin, alpha-1-microglobulin/bikunin precursor protein, and pentraxin 3 showed a trend towards group differences (p < 0.05). Among childhood cancer survivors, leptin was associated with anthracycline treatment after adjustment for age, sex, and body mass index (p < 0.0001). Higher leptin correlated with lower carotid distensibility after adjustment for age, sex, body mass index, and treatments with radiotherapy and anthracyclines (p = 0.005).

CONCLUSION: This proteomics approach identified that leptin is higher in young asymptomatic adult survivors of childhood cancer than in healthy controls and is associated with adverse vascular changes. This could indicate a role for leptin in driving the cardiovascular disease burden in this population.

INTRODUCTION: Data is limited on influence of forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV₁) and forced vital capacity (FVC) in a large adult population, including individuals with normal spirometry at baseline.

METHODS: Using the UK Biobank cohort, a multivariable Cox regression analysis was conducted on 406,424 individuals to examine the association between FEV₁ and FVC, categorized into three groups based on their percentage of predicted values (%pred) (≥80, 60-80 and < 60), and overall mortality, cardiovascular mortality, myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure over approximately 12.5 years. Moreover, a subgroup analysis was conducted on 295,459 individuals who had normal spirometry.

RESULTS: Reduced FEV₁ and FVC %pred values were associated with an elevated risk across all studied outcomes. Individuals with the lowest FEV₁ and FVC %pred values (<60 %) exhibited HR of 1.83 (95 % CI 1.74-1.93) and 1.98 (95 % CI 1.76-2.22) for overall mortality, and 1.96 (95 % CI 1.83-2.1) and 2.26 (95 % CI 1.94-2.63) for cardiovascular mortality. Moreover, a graded association was observed between lower FEV₁ and FVC %pred, even among never smokers and individuals with normal spirometry at baseline.

DISCUSSION: Reduced FEV₁ and FVC represent robust risk factors for cardiovascular disease and mortality. The fact that the increased risk was evident also at FEV₁ and FVC levels exceeding 80 %pred challenges the contemporary classification of lung function categories and the notion that the entire FEV₁- and FVC-range above 80 % of predicted represents a normal lung function.

Dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) is a leading cause of heart failure and cardiac transplantation. We report a genome-wide association study and multi-trait analysis of DCM (14,256 cases) and three left ventricular traits (36,203 UK Biobank participants). We identified 80 genomic risk loci and prioritized 62 putative effector genes, including several with rare variant DCM associations (MAP3K7, NEDD4L and SSPN). Using single-nucleus transcriptomics, we identify cellular states, biological pathways, and intracellular communications that drive pathogenesis. We demonstrate that polygenic scores predict DCM in the general population and modify penetrance in carriers of rare DCM variants. Our findings may inform the design of genetic testing strategies that incorporate polygenic background. They also provide insights into the molecular etiology of DCM that may facilitate the development of targeted therapeutics.

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license

Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

BACKGROUND: Up-to-date estimates of stroke burden and attributable risks and their trends at global, regional, and national levels are essential for evidence-based health care, prevention, and resource allocation planning. We aimed to provide such estimates for the period 1990-2021.

METHODS: We estimated incidence, prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) counts and age-standardised rates per 100 000 people per year for overall stroke, ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, and subarachnoid haemorrhage, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. We also calculated burden of stroke attributable to 23 risk factors and six risk clusters (air pollution, tobacco smoking, behavioural, dietary, environmental, and metabolic risks) at the global and regional levels (21 GBD regions and Socio-demographic Index [SDI] quintiles), using the standard GBD methodology. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.

FINDINGS: In 2021, stroke was the third most common GBD level 3 cause of death (7·3 million [95% UI 6·6-7·8] deaths; 10·7% [9·8-11·3] of all deaths) after ischaemic heart disease and COVID-19, and the fourth most common cause of DALYs (160·5 million [147·8-171·6] DALYs; 5·6% [5·0-6·1] of all DALYs). In 2021, there were 93·8 million (89·0-99·3) prevalent and 11·9 million (10·7-13·2) incident strokes. We found disparities in stroke burden and risk factors by GBD region, country or territory, and SDI, as well as a stagnation in the reduction of incidence from 2015 onwards, and even some increases in the stroke incidence, death, prevalence, and DALY rates in southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania, countries with lower SDI, and people younger than 70 years. Globally, ischaemic stroke constituted 65·3% (62·4-67·7), intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 28·8% (28·3-28·8), and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 5·8% (5·7-6·0) of incident strokes. There were substantial increases in DALYs attributable to high BMI (88·2% [53·4-117·7]), high ambient temperature (72·4% [51·1 to 179·5]), high fasting plasma glucose (32·1% [26·7-38·1]), diet high in sugar-sweetened beverages (23·4% [12·7-35·7]), low physical activity (11·3% [1·8-34·9]), high systolic blood pressure (6·7% [2·5-11·6]), lead exposure (6·5% [4·5-11·2]), and diet low in omega-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids (5·3% [0·5-10·5]).

INTERPRETATION: Stroke burden has increased from 1990 to 2021, and the contribution of several risk factors has also increased. Effective, accessible, and affordable measures to improve stroke surveillance, prevention (with the emphasis on blood pressure, lifestyle, and environmental factors), acute care, and rehabilitation need to be urgently implemented across all countries to reduce stroke burden.

FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

PURPOSE: In this study, a comprehensive analysis of costs of chronic kidney disease (CKD) was performed, to understand factors associated with the economic burden of the disease in a multicentre international framework.

METHODS: The impact on costs of demographics, socio-economics, clinical, and functional variables was tested in 2204 subjects aged 75 years or more attending outpatient clinics in Europe using a multicentre 2-year prospective cohort study. By means of collected resources consumption and unit cost data a comprehensive cost database was built and then investigated using multilevel regression modeling.

RESULTS: Overall, hospitalization, medications and specialist visits were the main cost items, with a notable variability among countries. Estimated yearly costs were 4478€ ± 9804€, rising up to 6683€ ± 10,953€ for subjects with estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate (eGFR) < 30. Costs increased significantly according to the severity of the disease, gender and age. Clinical and functional covariates were also significantly associated with CKD-related total costs, even after correcting for the inter-country variability.

CONCLUSION: Findings corroborate the importance of multidimensional assessment of participants with CKD, as multimorbidity and functional disability produce a detrimental impact on participant's prognosis and cost of care. Preservation of functional impairment and adequate management of comorbidities may thus help decreasing the overall consumption on health care resources in CKD patients, especially in older people.

AIMS: This study aimed to characterize a contemporary population with subtypes of incident or prevalent heart failure (HF) based on reduced (HFrEF), mildly reduced, or preserved (HFpEF) left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and to assess how outcomes, healthcare, treatments, and healthcare costs vary between each subtype of incident HF.

METHODS AND RESULTS: Using Swedish data from the CardioRenal and Metabolic disease Heart Failure (CaReMe HF) study, updated to cover a more recent time period, this population-based study characterized patients from Stockholm County, Sweden, with incident HF (patients with a first HF diagnosis between 1 January 2015 and 31 December 2019) or prevalent HF (patients with a first HF diagnosis before 1 January 2020). Patients with incident HF had LVEF measured by echocardiography within ±90 days of their first HF diagnosis, and patients with prevalent HF within 5 years prior to the index date. The 13 375 patients with prevalent HF (39.2% women, mean age 73.9 years) had multiple comorbidities (cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, diabetes, and cancer). These were already highly prevalent at the time of the first HF diagnosis in the 8042 patients with incident HF (40.5% women, mean age 72.3 years). Patients with incident HFpEF received less specialist HF care at outpatient secondary care facilities following their first HF diagnosis than those with incident HFrEF. Patients with HFrEF had higher risks of complications and exerted a higher burden, in terms of care for and costs of HF, on the healthcare system.

CONCLUSIONS: This study of contemporary patients with incident HF demonstrates that those with HFpEF and HFrEF differ considerably in terms of clinical presentation, prognosis, and care, highlighting a potential to improve HF outcomes.

AIM: Sarcopenia is associated with several factors and medical conditions among older adults, though previous research has shown limitations and inconsistencies, especially regarding chronic kidney disease (CKD). We investigated the clinical and laboratory variables associated with sarcopenia and severe sarcopenia in older adults, focusing on kidney function measures.

METHODS: Data from community-dwelling adults aged ≥75 years participating in the SCOPE multicenter prospective cohort study were assessed cross-sectionally. Comprehensive geriatric assessment was conducted; sociodemographic and lifestyle factors, clinical variables and comorbidities, anthropometric and bioelectrical impedance analysis, blood and urine laboratory variables were collected. EWGSOP2 revised criteria were used to define sarcopenia and its severity. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was calculated using creatinine and non-creatinine-based equations, and CKD stages were defined accordingly.

RESULTS: 1420 participants were included, prevalence of sarcopenia was 10.6 %, and 6 % had severe sarcopenia. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age [OR =1.14; 95 %CI (1.09-1.19)], body mass index (BMI) [0.83 (0.79-0.88)], disability performing instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) [2.61 (1.69-4.06)], Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) score <24 [2.75 (1.62-4.67)], osteoporosis [2.39 (1.55-3.67)], and stage 4 CKD defined by CKD-EPI_BTP-B2M, a non-creatinine-based eGFR equation [2.88 (1.11-7.49)], were independently associated with sarcopenia; as were specifically with severe sarcopenia, with more pronounced associations.

CONCLUSIONS: In community-dwelling older adults, sarcopenia is a relevant condition and is associated with severe CKD, older age, IADL, cognitive impairments, osteoporosis and low BMI. These factors should be assessed for proper identification and management of older patients with sarcopenia, and even more so with severe sarcopenia.

BACKGROUND: Despite the emerging interest in phase angle (PhA), a non-invasive marker of cell hydration and nutritional status, no previous study has reported the prospective association between PhA and incident sarcopenia. Therefore, the aim of our study was to evaluate the association of baseline PhA in older subjects without sarcopenia with the development of new sarcopenia as outcome.

METHODS: Six-hundred ninety-six subjects without sarcopenia aged ≥75 years enrolled in an international multicenter observational study were included. Sarcopenia was assessed according to the revised EWGSOP2 criteria at baseline and in follow-up visits at 12 and 24 months. Muscle strength was assessed through the handgrip strength test using a hydraulic grip strength dynamometer, muscle mass was assessed by bioimpedance analysis (BIA) and appendicular skeletal muscle mass (ASMM) was estimated. Physical performance was assessed by Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB).

RESULTS: Participants who developed sarcopenia were older, less educated, had higher prevalence of osteoporosis, and lower baseline cognitive function, SPPB, handgrip strength and ASMM than those without sarcopenia. Baseline PhA was significantly lower in subjects developing sarcopenia. Nevertheless, after adjusting for all potential covariates including baseline components of sarcopenia in multiple logistic regression, neither PhA as continuous variable nor different levels of PhA were any more significant predictors of sarcopenia.

CONCLUSIONS: As an indicator of cells function, PhA could be a potential useful early marker in identifying older people at risk of developing sarcopenia but its practical applicability remains uncertain with the present data.

BACKGROUND: The effect of marine omega-3 PUFAs on risk of stroke remains unclear.

METHODS: We investigated the associations between circulating and tissue omega-3 PUFA levels and incident stroke (total, ischemic, and hemorrhagic) in 29 international prospective cohorts. Each site conducted a de novo individual-level analysis using a prespecified analytical protocol with defined exposures, covariates, analytical methods, and outcomes; the harmonized data from the studies were then centrally pooled. Multivariable-adjusted HRs and 95% CIs across omega-3 PUFA quintiles were computed for each stroke outcome.

RESULTS: Among 183 291 study participants, there were 10 561 total strokes, 8220 ischemic strokes, and 1142 hemorrhagic strokes recorded over a median of 14.3 years follow-up. For eicosapentaenoic acid, comparing quintile 5 (Q5, highest) with quintile 1 (Q1, lowest), total stroke incidence was 17% lower (HR, 0.83 [CI, 0.76-0.91]; P<0.0001), and ischemic stroke was 18% lower (HR, 0.82 [CI, 0.74-0.91]; P<0.0001). For docosahexaenoic acid, comparing Q5 with Q1, there was a 12% lower incidence of total stroke (HR, 0.88 [CI, 0.81-0.96]; P=0.0001) and a 14% lower incidence of ischemic stroke (HR, 0.86 [CI, 0.78-0.95]; P=0.0001). Neither eicosapentaenoic acid nor docosahexaenoic acid was associated with a risk for hemorrhagic stroke. These associations were not modified by either baseline history of AF or prevalent CVD.

CONCLUSIONS: Higher omega-3 PUFA levels are associated with lower risks of total and ischemic stroke but have no association with hemorrhagic stroke.

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is the third most common type of cardiovascular disease. An association between high level of physical activity (PA) and the onset of VTE has been found in some, but not all previous studies. We aim to study the association between PA-level and VTE in a cohort of men with updated data on PA levels at four occasions. We used data from the Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM) study initiated in 1970, a study of men at age 50 years (n = 2,294 at baseline) examined on leisure time PA by questionnaire and traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Examinations were repeated at ages 60, 70, and 77, and follow-up was completed after a median time of 33 years. Cox regression analysis with hazard ratios (HRs) using updated covariates for PA and risk factors was performed on the association of PA levels with incident VTE, with adjustments for established cardiovascular risk factors (systolic blood pressure, LDL- and HDL-cholesterol, BMI, diabetes, and smoking). Totally 186 men experienced a VTE during follow-up of 68,263 person-years at risk. Individuals with the highest PA level had an increased relative risk of VTE, adjusted HR, 2.22 (95% CI 1.05-4.67), when compared to individuals with the lowest level of PA. In this cohort of men with a follow-up of 27 years, the risk of VTE was increased at the highest PA level. Findings indicate that there could be an increased VTE risk with higher PA level including strenuous activities.Graphical AbstractIn this cohort of men with a follow-up of 27 years, the risk of venous thromboembolism was increased at the highest level of physical activity

INTRODUCTION: Falls and fall-related injuries in older persons are a major public health problem. Our objective was to study the predictive value of the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) in the cohort of the SCOPE project on falls, injurious falls, and possible difference of prediction between indoors and outdoors falls.

METHODS: For this sub-study of the SCOPE project participants reporting no falls at baseline, and survey data on falls at the 12-month and 24-month follow-up were included. Participant´s characteristics were assessed during the baseline interview and medical examinations. Falls as well as injurious falls and fall circumstances were obtained self-reported. SPPB and its association with fallers vs. no fallers at 12 and at 24 months were studied with logistic regression models.

RESULTS: The 1198 participants had a median age of 79 years (77-82), and a median SPPB of 10 (8-11), with a 52.5% of female. A total of 227 and 277 falls (12- and 24- month visits, respectively) were reported. In the crude model, the SPPB sum scores (p < 0.001) as well as most single item scores were significant different between fallers and non-fallers over time. However, the association was attenuated in models adjusted for age, sex, marital status, number of medications, quality of life, handgrip strength, and muscle mass [e.g., 12 months; OR 0.94 (0.87-1.02)]. While SPPB fails to differentiate between injurious and non-injurious falls (p = 0.48), a lower SPPB score was associated with falls at home (p < 0.01) after 24 months.

CONCLUSION: SBPP was not able to significantly predict the risk of falling as well as experiencing an injurious fall.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study was registered prospectively on 25th February 2016 at clinicaltrials.gov (NCT02691546).

Several novel urinary kidney damage biomarkers predict the progression of kidney disease. However, the relations of these biomarkers to atherosclerosis, a major consequence of kidney disease, are less studied. Urinary levels of several biomarkers, including kidney injury molecule-1 (KIM-1), osteopontin, epidermal growth factor, and Dickkopf-3, were assessed in participants enrolled in the Swedish CArdioPulmonary BioImage Study. The study included 9,628 individuals with a mean age of 57.5 years, of which 52.4% were women. The presence of coronary artery stenosis and the coronary artery calcium score (CACS) were determined using coronary computed tomography angiography. To analyze the associations between coronary atherosclerosis and urinary biomarker levels, an ordered logistic regression model adusting for confounding factors was employed. KIM-1 was the only biomarker associated with both coronary stenosis and CACS after adjusting for established cardiovascular risk factors (odds ratio [95% confidence intervals], 1.23[1.05-1.44] and 1.25[1.07-1.47]). These results were consistent in sensitivity analyses of individuals without hypertension, diabetes, or known cardiovascular disease and with normal kidney function. Urinary KIM-1, a specific marker of proximal tubular damage, was robustly linked to coronary atherosclerosis even in apparently healthy individuals, which suggests that the detrimental interplay between the kidney and cardiovascular system begins before clinically overt kidney disease. Additional studies are warranted to evaluate the urinary KIM-1 to predict kidney and cardiovascular disease.

BACKGROUND: Higher circulating levels of tumor necrosis factor (TNF) alpha receptors 1 (TNFR1) and 2 (TNFR2) are associated with increased long-term mortality and impaired kidney function.

AIM: To study associations between levels of TNFR1 and TNFR2 and all-cause mortality as well as estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline.

POPULATION AND METHODS: Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) stages 3-5 in the Salford Kidney Study were included. Associations between one standard deviation increase in plasma TNFR1 and TNFR2 and mortality were estimated by Cox regression models with hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals adjusted for age, sex, eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C, urine-protein, C-reactive protin, cardiovascular comorbidity, smoking habits, and diabetes. Differences in eGFR decline in relation to plasma TNFR1 and TNFR2 were estimated by both linear and logistic regression models, with regression coefficients and odds ratios (ORs).

RESULTS: Univariate models showed significant associations between TNFR1 (n = 985) and TNFR2 (n = 988) and all-cause mortality based on 7424 person-years at risk, but in the fully adjusted models with continuous variables significant only for TNFR2 HR 1.17 (1.03-1.34), but with a borderline value for TNFR1 HR 1.15 (1.00-1.31). For rapid decliners, that is, eGFR decline in highest TNFR-receptor quartile versus quartiles 1-3, the decline was 1.60% per month (interval 0.78-10.99). For eGFR decline in continuous models, the fully adjusted ORs were for TNFR1 1.29 (0.92-1.81) and for TNFR2 1.33 (0.90-1.98).

CONCLUSIONS: TNFR2 was associated with mortality, but TNFR1 was not, although showing a borderline value. Neither TNFR1 nor TNFR2 predicted decline in kidney function. TNFR1 and TNFR2 portray interesting aspects in patients with CKD, but the clinical utility seems limited.

BACKGROUND: The C-reactive protein/albumin ratio (CAR) seems to mirror disease severity and prognosis in several acute disorders particularly in elderly patients, yet less is known about if CAR is superior to C-reactive protein (CRP) in the general population.

METHODS: Prospective study design on the UK Biobank, where serum samples of CRP and Albumin were used. Cox regression analyses were conducted to assess all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, and heart failure over a follow-up period of approximately 12.5 years. The Cox model was adjusted for established cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors, including age, sex, smoking habits, physical activity level, BMI level, systolic blood pressure, LDL-cholesterol, statin treatment, diabetes, and previous CVD, with hazard ratios (HRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Analyses were also stratified by sex, CRP level (< 10 and ≥ 10 mg/ml) and age (< 60 and ≥ 60 years).

RESULTS: In total, 411,506 individuals (186,043 men and 225,463 women) were included. In comparisons between HRs for all adverse outcomes, the results were similar or identical for CAR and CRP. For example, both CAR and CRP, adjusted HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.13 (95% CI 1.12-1.14). Regarding CVD mortality, the adjusted HR for CAR was 1.14 (95% CI 1.12-1.15), while for CRP, it was 1.13 (95% CI 1.11-1.15).

CONCLUSIONS: Within this study CAR was not superior to CRP in predictive ability of mortality or CVD disorders.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Not applicable (cohort study).

Background: The European Union (EU) faces many health-related challenges. Burden of diseases information and the resulting trends over time are essential for health planning. This paper reports estimates of disease burden in the EU and individual 27 EU countries in 2019, and compares them with those in 2010. Methods: We used the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study estimates and 95% uncertainty intervals for the whole EU and each country to evaluate age-standardised death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates for Level 2 causes, as well as life expectancy and healthy life expectancy (HALE). Results: In 2019, the age-standardised death and DALY rates in the EU were 465.8 deaths and 20,251.0 DALYs per 100,000 inhabitants, respectively. Between 2010 and 2019, there were significant decreases in age-standardised death and YLL rates across EU countries. However, YLD rates remained mainly unchanged. The largest decreases in age-standardised DALY rates were observed for “HIV/AIDS and sexually transmitted diseases” and “transport injuries” (each -19%). “Diabetes and kidney diseases” showed a significant increase for age-standardised DALY rates across the EU (3.5%). In addition, “mental disorders” showed an increasing age-standardised YLL rate (14.5%). Conclusions: There was a clear trend towards improvement in the overall health status of the EU but with differences between countries. EU health policymakers need to address the burden of diseases, paying specific attention to causes such as mental disorders. There are many opportunities for mutual learning among otherwise similar countries with different patterns of disease. © The Author(s) 2024.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to compare absolute plasma concentrations of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) obtained by a conventional immunoassay with the corresponding relative concentrations from a proximity extension assay (PEA) and compare the prognostic impact of the protein levels obtained from these assays.

METHODS: We evaluated 437 patients with peripheral arterial disease (PAD) and a population-based cohort of 643 individuals without PAD. Correlations were calculated using Spearman's rank correlation coefficients (rho). The discriminatory accuracy of the protein levels to predict future cardiovascular events was analyzed with Cox regression and presented as time-dependent areas under the receiver-operator-characteristic curves (tdAUCs).

RESULTS: For NT-proBNP, the two assays correlated with rho 0.93 and 0.93 in the respective cohort. The PEA values leveled off at higher values in both cohorts. The corresponding correlations for GDF-15 were 0.91 and 0.89. At 5 years follow-up, the tdAUCs in the patient cohort were similar for NT-proBNP and GDF-15 regardless of assay used (0.65-0.66). The corresponding tdAUCs in the population-based cohort were between 0.72 and 0.77.

CONCLUSION: Except for the highest levels of NT-proBNP, we suggest that PEA data for NT-proBNP and GDF-15 reliably reflects absolute plasma levels and contains similar prognostic information.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies have shown that impaired lung function is common and associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Increased levels of several inflammatory and cardiovascular disease-related plasma proteins have been associated with impaired lung function. The aim was to study the association between plasma proteomics and forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV₁), forced vital capacity (FVC) and FEV₁/FVC ratio.

METHODS: We used a discovery and replication approach in two community-based cohorts, EpiHealth and the Malmö Offspring Study (total n=2874), to cross-sectionally study 242 cardiovascular disease- and metabolism-linked proteins in relation to FEV₁, FVC (both % predicted) and FEV₁/FVC ratio. A false discovery rate of 5% was used as the significance threshold in the discovery cohort.

RESULTS: Plasma fatty acid-binding protein 4, interleukin-1 receptor antagonist, interleukin-6 and leptin were negatively associated with FEV₁ and paraoxonase 3 was positively associated therewith. Fatty acid-binding protein 4, fibroblast growth factor 21, interleukin-1 receptor antagonist, interleukin-6 and leptin were negatively associated with FVC and agouti-related protein, insulin-like growth factor-binding protein 2, paraoxonase 3 and receptor for advanced glycation end products were positively associated therewith. No proteins were associated with FEV₁/FVC ratio. A sensitivity analysis in EpiHealth revealed only minor changes after excluding individuals with known cardiovascular disease, diabetes or obesity.

CONCLUSIONS: Five proteins were associated with both FEV₁ and FVC. Four proteins associated with only FVC and none with FEV₁/FVC ratio, suggesting associations mainly through lung volume, not airway obstruction. However, additional studies are needed to investigate underlying mechanisms for these findings.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) in older people is a heterogeneous condition that exhibits differential characteristics in comparison with younger adults. DM increases the risk of disability, is associated with dementia and loss of function, and cognition may often be interrelated and more pronounced in older patients with DM than in those without.

AIMS: Our aim was to evaluate the incidence of functional and/or cognitive impairment in older adults with and without DM, and its associated factors in DM participants.

METHODS: A 2-year prospective analysis was conducted in a European multicenter prospective cohort (SCOPE study). Older community-dwelling adults (aged ≥ 75 years) underwent a comprehensive geriatric assessment. New functional and/or cognitive decline was explored.

RESULTS: Of 1611 participants, 335 (22.0%) had DM at baseline. The percentage of participants scoring at least one ADL impairment and/or cognitive impairment (MMSE < 24) was similar in both groups (9.6%). Factors associated with any new disability in participants with DM in the multivariate analysis were female sex (OR 3.28, 95% CI 1.42-7.56), history of stroke (OR 4.58, 95% CI 1.64-12.7), and greater IADL dependency (OR 1.08 95% CI 1.02-1.15).

DISCUSSION: Association between DM and cognitive or functional decline in outpatients of 75 years and older was not found, but factors such as female gender, history of stroke, and IADL dependency could be related.

CONCLUSION: Decline in functional and cognitive status of community-dwelling older adults with DM was similar to participants without DM in a short period of 2 years of follow-up, though several clinical factors may increase its risk in this population.

IMPORTANCE: Chronic kidney disease (low estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] or albuminuria) affects approximately 14% of adults in the US.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate associations of lower eGFR based on creatinine alone, lower eGFR based on creatinine combined with cystatin C, and more severe albuminuria with adverse kidney outcomes, cardiovascular outcomes, and other health outcomes.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Individual-participant data meta-analysis of 27 503 140 individuals from 114 global cohorts (eGFR based on creatinine alone) and 720 736 individuals from 20 cohorts (eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C) and 9 067 753 individuals from 114 cohorts (albuminuria) from 1980 to 2021.

EXPOSURES: The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration 2021 equations for eGFR based on creatinine alone and eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C; and albuminuria estimated as urine albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The risk of kidney failure requiring replacement therapy, all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, acute kidney injury, any hospitalization, coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and peripheral artery disease. The analyses were performed within each cohort and summarized with random-effects meta-analyses.

RESULTS: Within the population using eGFR based on creatinine alone (mean age, 54 years [SD, 17 years]; 51% were women; mean follow-up time, 4.8 years [SD, 3.3 years]), the mean eGFR was 90 mL/min/1.73 m2 (SD, 22 mL/min/1.73 m2) and the median UACR was 11 mg/g (IQR, 8-16 mg/g). Within the population using eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C (mean age, 59 years [SD, 12 years]; 53% were women; mean follow-up time, 10.8 years [SD, 4.1 years]), the mean eGFR was 88 mL/min/1.73 m2 (SD, 22 mL/min/1.73 m2) and the median UACR was 9 mg/g (IQR, 6-18 mg/g). Lower eGFR (whether based on creatinine alone or based on creatinine and cystatin C) and higher UACR were each significantly associated with higher risk for each of the 10 adverse outcomes, including those in the mildest categories of chronic kidney disease. For example, among people with a UACR less than 10 mg/g, an eGFR of 45 to 59 mL/min/1.73 m2 based on creatinine alone was associated with significantly higher hospitalization rates compared with an eGFR of 90 to 104 mL/min/1.73 m2 (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.3 [95% CI, 1.2-1.3]; 161 vs 79 events per 1000 person-years; excess absolute risk, 22 events per 1000 person-years [95% CI, 19-25 events per 1000 person-years]).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this retrospective analysis of 114 cohorts, lower eGFR based on creatinine alone, lower eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C, and more severe UACR were each associated with increased rates of 10 adverse outcomes, including adverse kidney outcomes, cardiovascular diseases, and hospitalizations.

Background The study aimed to show the relationship between a large number of circulating metabolites and subsequent cardiovascular disease (CVD) and subclinical markers of CVD in the general population.

Methods and Results In 2278 individuals free from CVD in the EpiHealth study (aged 45-75 years, mean age 61 years, 50% women), 790 annotated nonxenobiotic metabolites were measured by mass spectroscopy (Metabolon). The same metabolites were measured in the PIVUS (Prospective Investigation of Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors) study (n=603, all aged 80 years, 50% women), in which cardiac and carotid artery pathologies were evaluated by ultrasound. During a median follow-up of 8.6 years, 107 individuals experienced a CVD (fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction, stroke, or heart failure) in EpiHealth. Using a false discovery rate of 0.05 for age- and sex-adjusted analyses and P<0.05 for adjustment for traditional CVD risk factors, 37 metabolites were significantly related to incident CVD. These metabolites belonged to multiple biochemical classes, such as amino acids, lipids, and nucleotides. Top findings were dimethylglycine and N-acetylmethionine. A lasso selection of 5 metabolites improved discrimination when added on top of traditional CVD risk factors (+4.0%, P=0.0054). Thirty-five of the 37 metabolites were related to subclinical markers of CVD evaluated in the PIVUS study. The metabolite 1-carboxyethyltyrosine was associated with left atrial diameter as well as inversely related to both ejection fraction and the echogenicity of the carotid artery.

Conclusions Several metabolites were discovered to be associated with future CVD, as well as with subclinical markers of CVD. A selection of metabolites improved discrimination when added on top of CVD risk factors.

BACKGROUND: Patients with peripheral vascular disease (PVD) are often underdiagnosed and undertreated. Nocturnal nondipping blood pressure (BP) pattern, as diagnosed by ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM), is associated with increased cardiovascular risk, but has not been studied in patients with PVD. We aimed to investigate if a nondipping BP pattern predicts cardiovascular events or all-cause death in outpatients with PVD.

METHODS: Consecutive outpatients with carotid or lower-extremity PVD were examined with 24-hour ABPM (n = 396). Nondipping was defined as a < 10% fall in systolic BP level during night-time. We used Cox regression models adjusting for potential confounders. We also evaluated the incremental prognostic value of dipping status in the COPART risk score. Our primary composite outcome was cardiovascular events or all-cause death.

RESULTS: In the cohort (mean age 70; 40% women), 137 events occurred during a 5.1-year median follow-up; incident rate of 7.35 events per 100 person-years. Nondipping was significantly associated with outcome (hazard ratio 1.55, 95% CI 1.07-2.26, p = 0.021) in a fully adjusted model. When adding nondipping to the risk markers in the COPART risk score, the model fit significantly improved (χ² 7.91, p < 0.005) and the C-statistic increased from 0.65 to 0.67.

CONCLUSION: In a cohort of outpatients with PVD, nondipping was an independent risk factor for future cardiovascular events or mortality and seemed to be a strong predictor in patients with carotid artery disease but not in lower-extremity PVD. Additional studies are needed to evaluate the clinical utility of ABPM for improved prevention in these high-risk patients. (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01452165).

BACKGROUND: Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a common sleep-breathing disorder linked to increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Intermittent hypoxia and intermittent airway obstruction, hallmarks of OSA, have been shown in animal models to induce substantial changes to the gut microbiota composition and subsequent transplantation of fecal matter to other animals induced changes in blood pressure and glucose metabolism.

RESEARCH QUESTION: Does obstructive sleep apnea in adults associate with the composition and metabolic potential of the human gut microbiota?

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We used respiratory polygraphy data from up to 3,570 individuals aged 50-64 from the population-based Swedish CardioPulmonary bioImage Study combined with deep shotgun metagenomics of fecal samples to identify cross-sectional associations between three OSA parameters covering apneas and hypopneas, cumulative sleep time in hypoxia and number of oxygen desaturation events with gut microbiota composition. Data collection about potential confounders was based on questionnaires, on-site anthropometric measurements, plasma metabolomics, and linkage with the Swedish Prescribed Drug Register.

RESULTS: We found that all three OSA parameters were associated with lower diversity of species in the gut. Further, the OSA-related hypoxia parameters were in multivariable-adjusted analysis associated with the relative abundance of 128 gut bacterial species, including higher abundance of Blautia obeum and Collinsela aerofaciens. The latter species was also independently associated with increased systolic blood pressure. Further, the cumulative time in hypoxia during sleep was associated with the abundance of genes involved in nine gut microbiota metabolic pathways, including propionate production from lactate. Lastly, we observed two heterogeneous sets of plasma metabolites with opposite association with species positively and negatively associated with hypoxia parameters, respectively.

INTERPRETATION: OSA-related hypoxia, but not the number of apneas/hypopneas, is associated with specific gut microbiota species and functions. Our findings lay the foundation for future research on the gut microbiota-mediated health effects of OSA.

Background: The relationship between omega-3 fatty acids and atrial fibrillation (AF) remains controversial. Objectives: This study aimed to determine the prospective associations of blood or adipose tissue levels of eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA), docosapentaenoic acid (DPA), and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) with incident AF. Methods: We used participant-level data from a global consortium of 17 prospective cohort studies, each with baseline data on blood or adipose tissue omega-3 fatty acid levels and AF outcomes. Each participating study conducted a de novo analyses using a prespecified analytical plan with harmonized definitions for exposures, outcome, covariates, and subgroups. Associations were pooled using inverse-variance weighted meta-analysis. Results: Among 54,799 participants from 17 cohorts, 7,720 incident cases of AF were ascertained after a median 13.3 years of follow-up. In multivariable analysis, EPA levels were not associated with incident AF, HR per interquintile range (ie, the difference between the 90th and 10th percentiles) was 1.00 (95% CI: 0.95-1.05). HRs for higher levels of DPA, DHA, and EPA+DHA, were 0.89 (95% CI: 0.83-0.95), 0.90 (95% CI: 0.85-0.96), and 0.93 (95% CI: 0.87-0.99), respectively. Conclusions: In vivo levels of omega-3 fatty acids including EPA, DPA, DHA, and EPA+DHA were not associated with increased risk of incident AF. Our data suggest the safety of habitual dietary intakes of omega-3 fatty acids with respect to AF risk. Coupled with the known benefits of these fatty acids in the prevention of adverse coronary events, our study suggests that current dietary guidelines recommending fish/omega-3 fatty acid consumption can be maintained. © 2023 American College of Cardiology Foundation

BACKGROUND: Proteomic profiling could potentially disclose new pathophysiological pathways for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and improve prediction at the individual level. We therefore aimed to study the plasma protein profile associated with the incidence of different CVDs.

METHODS: Plasma levels of 245 proteins suspected to be linked to CVD or metabolism were measured in 4 Swedish prospective population-based cohorts (SIMPLER [Swedish Infrastructure for Medical Population-Based Life-Course and Environmental Research], ULSAM (Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men), EpiHealth, and POEM [Prospective Investigation of Obesity, Energy Production, and Metabolism]) comprising 11 869 individuals, free of CVD diagnoses at baseline. Our primary CVD outcome was defined by a combined end point that included either incident myocardial infarction, stroke, or heart failure.

RESULTS: Using a discovery/validation approach, 42 proteins were associated with our primary composite end point occurring in 1163 subjects. In separate meta-analyses for each of the 3 CVD outcomes, 49 proteins were related to myocardial infarction, 34 to ischemic stroke, and 109 to heart failure. Thirteen proteins were related to all 3 outcomes. Of those, urokinase plasminogen activator surface receptor, adrenomedullin, and KIM-1 (kidney injury molecule 1) were also related to several markers of subclinical CVD in Prospective Investigation of Obesity, Energy production and Metabolism, reflecting myocardial or arterial pathologies. In prediction analysis, a lasso selection of 11 proteins in ULSAM improved the discrimination of CVD by 3.3% (P<0.0001) in SIMPLER when added to traditional risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS: Protein profiling in multiple samples disclosed several new proteins to be associated with subsequent myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure, suggesting common pathophysiological pathways for these diseases. KIM-1, urokinase plasminogen activator surface receptor, and adrenomedullin were novel early markers of CVD. A selection of 11 proteins improved the discrimination of CVD.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The euglycaemic-hyperinsulinaemic clamp (EIC) is the reference standard for the measurement of whole-body insulin sensitivity but is laborious and expensive to perform. We aimed to assess the incremental value of high-throughput plasma proteomic profiling in developing signatures correlating with the M value derived from the EIC.

METHODS: We measured 828 proteins in the fasting plasma of 966 participants from the Relationship between Insulin Sensitivity and Cardiovascular disease (RISC) study and 745 participants from the Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM) using a high-throughput proximity extension assay. We used the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) approach using clinical variables and protein measures as features. Models were tested within and across cohorts. Our primary model performance metric was the proportion of the M value variance explained (R²).

RESULTS: A standard LASSO model incorporating 53 proteins in addition to routinely available clinical variables increased the M value R² from 0.237 (95% CI 0.178, 0.303) to 0.456 (0.372, 0.536) in RISC. A similar pattern was observed in ULSAM, in which the M value R² increased from 0.443 (0.360, 0.530) to 0.632 (0.569, 0.698) with the addition of 61 proteins. Models trained in one cohort and tested in the other also demonstrated significant improvements in R² despite differences in baseline cohort characteristics and clamp methodology (RISC to ULSAM: 0.491 [0.433, 0.539] for 51 proteins; ULSAM to RISC: 0.369 [0.331, 0.416] for 67 proteins). A randomised LASSO and stability selection algorithm selected only two proteins per cohort (three unique proteins), which improved R² but to a lesser degree than in standard LASSO models: 0.352 (0.266, 0.439) in RISC and 0.495 (0.404, 0.585) in ULSAM. Reductions in improvements of R² with randomised LASSO and stability selection were less marked in cross-cohort analyses (RISC to ULSAM R² 0.444 [0.391, 0.497]; ULSAM to RISC R² 0.348 [0.300, 0.396]). Models of proteins alone were as effective as models that included both clinical variables and proteins using either standard or randomised LASSO. The single most consistently selected protein across all analyses and models was IGF-binding protein 2.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: A plasma proteomic signature identified using a standard LASSO approach improves the cross-sectional estimation of the M value over routine clinical variables. However, a small subset of these proteins identified using a stability selection algorithm affords much of this improvement, especially when considering cross-cohort analyses. Our approach provides opportunities to improve the identification of insulin-resistant individuals at risk of insulin resistance-related adverse health consequences.

A longitudinal alteration in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) over a two-year period and its association with early-stage chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression was investigated among 1748 older adults (>75 years). HRQoL was measured by the Euro-Quality of Life Visual Analog Scale (EQ-VAS) at baseline and at one and two years after recruitment. A full comprehensive geriatric assessment was performed, including sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, the Geriatric Depression Scale-Short Form (GDS-SF), Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB), and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). The association between EQ-VAS decline and covariates was investigated by multivariable analyses. A total of 41% of the participants showed EQ-VAS decline, and 16.3% showed kidney function decline over the two-year follow-up period. Participants with EQ-VAS decline showed an increase in GDS-SF scores and a greater decline in SPPB scores. The logistic regression analyses showed no contribution of a decrease in kidney function on EQ-VAS decline in the early stages of CKD. However, older adults with a greater GDS-SF score were more likely to present EQ-VAS decline over time, whereas an increase in the SPPB scores was associated with less EQ-VAS decline. This finding should be considered in clinical practice and when HRQoL is used to evaluate health interventions among older adults.

BACKGROUND: Gut microbiota have been implicated in atherosclerotic disease, but their relation with subclinical coronary atherosclerosis is unclear. This study aimed to identify associations between the gut microbiome and computed tomography-based measures of coronary atherosclerosis and to explore relevant clinical correlates.

METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study of 8973 participants (50 to 65 years of age) without overt atherosclerotic disease from the population-based SCAPIS (Swedish Cardiopulmonary Bioimage Study). Coronary atherosclerosis was measured using coronary artery calcium score and coronary computed tomography angiography. Gut microbiota species abundance and functional potential were assessed with shotgun metagenomics sequencing of stool, and associations with coronary atherosclerosis were evaluated with multivariable regression models adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors. Associated species were evaluated for association with inflammatory markers, metabolites, and corresponding species in saliva.

RESULTS: The mean age of the study sample was 57.4 years, and 53.7% were female. Coronary artery calcification was detected in 40.3%, and 5.4% had at least 1 stenosis with >50% occlusion. Sixty-four species were associated with coronary artery calcium score independent of cardiovascular risk factors, with the strongest associations observed for Streptococcus anginosus and Streptococcus oralis subsp oralis (P<1×10^-5). Associations were largely similar across coronary computed tomography angiography-based measurements. Out of the 64 species, 19 species, including streptococci and other species commonly found in the oral cavity, were associated with high-sensitivity C-reactive protein plasma concentrations, and 16 with neutrophil counts. Gut microbial species that are commonly found in the oral cavity were negatively associated with plasma indole propionate and positively associated with plasma secondary bile acids and imidazole propionate. Five species, including 3 streptococci, correlated with the same species in saliva and were associated with worse dental health in the Malmö Offspring Dental Study. Microbial functional potential of dissimilatory nitrate reduction, anaerobic fatty acid β-oxidation, and amino acid degradation were associated with coronary artery calcium score.

CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence of an association of a gut microbiota composition characterized by increased abundance of Streptococcus spp and other species commonly found in the oral cavity with coronary atherosclerosis and systemic inflammation markers. Further longitudinal and experimental studies are warranted to explore the potential implications of a bacterial component in atherogenesis.

AIMS: A high intake of salt raises blood pressure and the risk of cardiovascular disease. Previous studies have reported on the association between salt intake and carotid stenosis, but the association with coronary atherosclerosis has not been reported. Therefore, this project aimed at studying the association between salt intake and both carotid and coronary atherosclerosis in a contemporary community-based cohort.

METHODS AND RESULTS: Estimated 24-h sodium excretion (est24hNa) was calculated by the Kawasaki formula for participants of two sites (Uppsala and Malmö) of the Swedish Cardiopulmonary bioImage Study, who underwent a coronary computed tomography (n = 9623) and measurement of coronary artery calcium score (CACS, n = 10 289). Carotid ultrasound was used to detect carotid plaques (n = 10 700). Ordered logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (OR) per 1000 mg increase in est24hNa. We also investigated potential J-formed associations using quintiles of est24hNa. Increased est24hNa was associated with increased occurrence of carotid plaques [OR: 1.09, P < 0.001, confidence interval (CI): 1.06-1.12], higher CACS (OR: 1.16, P < 0.001, CI: 1.12-1.19), and coronary artery stenosis (OR: 1.17, P < 0.001, CI: 1.13-1.20) in minimal adjusted models. Associations were abolished when adjusting for blood pressure. When adjusting for established cardiovascular risk factors (not including blood pressure), associations remained for carotid plaques but not for coronary atherosclerosis. There was no evidence of J-formed associations.

CONCLUSION: Higher est24hNa was associated with both coronary and carotid atherosclerosis in minimal adjusted models. The association seemed mainly mediated by blood pressure but to some degree also influenced by other established cardiovascular risk factors.

Estimation of kidney function is often part of daily clinical practice, mostly done by using the endogenous GFR-markers creatinine or cystatin C. A recommendation to use both markers in parallel in 2010 has resulted in new knowledge concerning the pathophysiology of kidney disorders by identification of a new set of kidney disorders, selective glomerular hypofiltration syndromes. These syndromes, connected to strong increases in mortality and morbidity, are characterised by a selective reduction in the glomerular filtration of 5-30 kDa molecules, such as cystatin C, compared to the filtration of small molecules < 1kDa dominating the glomerular filtrate e.g., water, urea, creatinine. At least two types of such disorders, shrunken or elongated pore syndrome, are possible according to the pore model for glomerular filtration. Selective glomerular hypofiltration syndromes are prevalent in investigated populations, and patients with these syndromes often display normal measured GFR or creatinine-based GFR-estimates. The syndromes are characterised by proteomic changes promoting the development of atherosclerosis, indicating antibodies and specific receptor-blocking substances as possible new treatment modalities. Presently, the KDIGO guidelines for diagnosing kidney disorders do not recommend cystatin C as a general marker of kidney function and will therefore not allow the identification of a considerable number of patients with selective glomerular hypofiltration syndromes. Furthermore, as cystatin C is uninfluenced by muscle mass, diet or variations in tubular secretion and cystatin C-based GFR-estimation equations do not require controversial race or sex terms, it is obvious that cystatin C should be a part of future KDIGO guidelines. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.  

C-reactive protein (CRP)/Albumin ratio (CAR) seems to mirror disease severity and prognosis in several acute disorders particularly in elderly patients, which we aimed to study. As method we use a prospective study design; the Prospective Investigation of the Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors (PIVUS; n = 912, women 50%; mean age 70 years, baseline 2001 and 2004, median follow-up 15.0 years, end of follow-up 2019) and the Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM, n = 924 mean age 71 years, baseline 1991-1995, median follow-up 15.6 years, end of follow-up 2016). Serum samples were used for analyses of CRP and Albumin. Cox regression analyses were performed for cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in models adjusting for several factors (age; physical activity; Interleukin-6; cardiovascular (CVD) risk factors: smoking, BMI level, systolic blood pressure, LDL-cholesterol, and diabetes), with 95% confidence interval (CI). When adjusting for age and CVD risk factors, CAR was significantly associated with cardiovascular mortality for meta-analyzed results from PIVUS and ULSAM, HR 1.09 (95% 1.01-1.18), but neither in PIVUS (HR 1.14, 95% CI 0.99-1.31) nor in ULSAM (1.07, 95% CI 0.98-1.17). Additionally, CAR was significantly associated with all-cause mortality in ULSAM 1.31 (95% CI 1.12-1.54) but not in PIVUS HRs 1.01 (95% 0.089-1.15). The predictive value of CAR was similar to CRP alone in PIVUS and ULSAM and slightly better than albumin for the prediction of CVD-mortality in ULSAM. In conclusion, CAR was not consistently associated with cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in the two cohorts. The prognostic value of CAR for long-term CVD-mortality was similar to CRP.

Objective:  Decreased kidney function increases cardiovascular risk and predicts poor survival. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) by creatinine may theoretically be less accurate in the critically ill. This observational study compares long-term cardiovascular mortality risk by the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) creatinine equation; Caucasian, Asian, paediatric and adult cohort (CAPA) cystatin C equation and the CKD-EPI combined creatinine/cystatin C equation.

Methods:  The nationwide study includes 22 488 intensive care patients in Uppsala, Karolinska and Lund University Hospitals, Sweden, between 2004 and 2015. Creatinine and cystatin C were analysed with accredited methods at admission. Reclassification and model discrimination with C-statistics was used to compare creatinine and cystatin C for cardiovascular mortality prediction.

Results:  During 5 years of follow-up, 2960 (13 %) of the patients died of cardiovascular causes. Reduced eGFR was significantly associated with cardiovascular death by all eGFR equations in Cox regression models. In each creatinine-based GFR category, 17%, 19% and 31% reclassified to a lower GFR category by cystatin C. These patients had significantly higher cardiovascular mortality risk, adjusted HR (95% CI), 1.55 (1.38 to 1.74), 1.76 (1.53 to 2.03) and 1.44 (1.11 to 1.86), respectively, compared with patients not reclassified. Harrell's C-statistic for cardiovascular death for cystatin C, alone or combined with creatinine, was 0.73, significantly higher than for creatinine (0.71), p<0.001.

Conclusions:  A single cystatin C at admission to the intensive care unit added significant predictive value to creatinine for long-term cardiovascular death risk assessment. Cystatin C, alone or in combination with creatinine, should be used for estimating GFR for long-term risk prediction in critically ill.

Human gut microbiota produce a variety of molecules, some of which enter the bloodstream and impact health. Conversely, dietary or pharmacological compounds may affect the microbiota before entering the circulation. Characterization of these interactions is an important step towards understanding the effects of the gut microbiota on health. In this cross-sectional study, we used deep metagenomic sequencing and ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography linked to mass spectrometry for a detailed characterization of the gut microbiota and plasma metabolome, respectively, of 8583 participants invited at age 50 to 64 from the population-based Swedish CArdioPulmonary bioImage Study. Here, we find that the gut microbiota explain up to 58% of the variance of individual plasma metabolites and we present 997 associations between alpha diversity and plasma metabolites and 546,819 associations between specific gut metagenomic species and plasma metabolites in an online atlas ( https://gutsyatlas.serve.scilifelab.se/ ). We exemplify the potential of this resource by presenting novel associations between dietary factors and oral medication with the gut microbiome, and microbial species strongly associated with the uremic toxin p-cresol sulfate. This resource can be used as the basis for targeted studies of perturbation of specific metabolites and for identification of candidate plasma biomarkers of gut microbiota composition.

Reduced glomerular filtration rate (GFR) can progress to kidney failure. Risk factors include genetics and diabetes mellitus (DM), but little is known about their interaction. We conducted genome-wide association meta-analyses for estimated GFR based on serum creatinine (eGFR), separately for individuals with or without DM (n_DM = 178,691, n_noDM = 1,296,113). Our genome-wide searches identified (i) seven eGFR loci with significant DM/noDM-difference, (ii) four additional novel loci with suggestive difference and (iii) 28 further novel loci (including CUBN) by allowing for potential difference. GWAS on eGFR among DM individuals identified 2 known and 27 potentially responsible loci for diabetic kidney disease. Gene prioritization highlighted 18 genes that may inform reno-protective drug development. We highlight the existence of DM-only and noDM-only effects, which can inform about the target group, if respective genes are advanced as drug targets. Largely shared effects suggest that most drug interventions to alter eGFR should be effective in DM and noDM.

Obesity is associated with adverse health outcomes, but the metabolic effects have not yet been fully elucidated. We aimed to investigate the association between adiposity with circulating metabolites and to address causality with Mendelian randomization (MR). Metabolomics data was generated by non-targeted ultra-performance liquid-chromatography coupled to time-of-flight mass-spectrometry in plasma and serum from three population-based Swedish cohorts: ULSAM (N=1,135), PIVUS (N=970), and TwinGene (N=2,059). We assessed associations between general adiposity measured as body mass index (BMI) and central body fat distribution measured as waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI (WHRadjBMI) with 210 annotated metabolites. We employed MR analysis to assess causal effects. Lastly, we attempted to replicate the MR findings in the KORA and TwinsUK cohorts (N=7,373), the CHARGE consortium (N=8,631), the Framingham Heart Study (N=2,076) and the DIRECT consortium (N=3,029). BMI was associated with 77 metabolites, while WHRadjBMI was associated with 11 and 3 metabolites in women and men, respectively. The MR analyses in the Swedish cohorts suggested a causal association (p-value <0.05) of increased general adiposity and reduced levels of arachidonic acid, dodecanedioic acid and lysophosphatidylcholine (P-16:0) as well as with increased creatine levels. The replication effort provided support for a causal association of adiposity on reduced levels of arachidonic acid (p-value 0.03). Adiposity is associated with variation of large parts of the circulating metabolome, however causality needs further investigation in well-powered cohorts.

Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) reflects kidney function. Progressive eGFR-decline can lead to kidney failure, necessitating dialysis or transplantation. Hundreds of loci from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for eGFR help explain population cross section variability. Since the contribution of these or other loci to eGFR-decline remains largely unknown, we derived GWAS for annual eGFR-decline and meta-analyzed 62 longitudinal studies with eGFR assessed twice over time in all 343,339 individuals and in high-risk groups. We also explored different covariate adjustment. Twelve genome-wide significant independent variants for eGFR-decline unadjusted or adjusted for eGFR-baseline (11 novel, one known for this phenotype), including nine variants robustly associated across models were identified. All loci for eGFR-decline were known for cross-sectional eGFR and thus distinguished a subgroup of eGFR loci. Seven of the nine variants showed variant-by-age interaction on eGFR cross section (further about 350,000 individuals), which linked genetic associations for eGFR-decline with age-dependency of genetic cross-section associations. Clinically important were two to four-fold greater genetic effects on eGFR-decline in high-risk subgroups. Five variants associated also with chronic kidney disease progression mapped to genes with functional in-silico evidence (UMOD, SPATA7, GALNTL5, TPPP). An unfavorable versus favorable nine-variant genetic profile showed increased risk odds ratios of 1.35 for kidney failure (95% confidence intervals 1.03-1.77) and 1.27 for acute kidney injury (95% confidence intervals 1.08-1.50) in over 2000 cases each, with matched controls). Thus, we provide a large data resource, genetic loci, and prioritized genes for kidney function decline, which help inform drug development pipelines revealing important insights into the age-dependency of kidney function genetics.

Elevated circulating copper levels have been associated with chronic kidney disease (CKD), kidney damage, and decline in kidney function. Using a two sample Mendelian randomization approach where copper-associated genetic variants were used as instrumental variables, genetically predicted higher circulating copper levels were associated with higher CKD prevalence (odds ratio 1.17; 95% confidence interval 1.04, 1.32; p-value = 0.009). There was suggestive evidence that genetically predicted higher copper was associated with a lower estimated glomerular filtration rate and a more rapid kidney damage decline. In conclusion, we observed that elevated circulating copper levels may be a causal risk factor for CKD. © 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.

The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is a marker for systemic inflammation. Since inflammation plays a relevant role in vascular aging, the aim of this study was to investigate whether NLR is associated with blood pressure profiles in older adults. This study was performed within the framework of the SCOPE study including 2461 outpatients aged 75 years and over. Mean blood pressure values, namely systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and pulse pressure (PP) were investigated across tertiles of NLR. Change in blood pressure levels in 2 years of follow-up were compared across categories of baseline NLR. Data of 2397 individuals were used, of which 1854 individuals had hypertension. Mean values of blood pressure did not differ across categories of baseline NLR in individuals without hypertension. Individuals with hypertension with a high-range NLR had lower SBP and PP when compared to those in low-range NLR (mean difference SBP -2.94 mmHg, p = 0.032 and PP -2.55 mmHg, p = 0.030). Mean change in blood pressure in 2 years did only slightly differ in non-clinically relevant ranges, when compared across tertiles of baseline NLR. NLR as a marker of inflammaging was not associated with unfavorable blood pressure profiles in older individuals with or without hypertension.

CONTEXT: There is a dispute whether obesity without major metabolic derangements may represent a benign condition or not.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to compare the plasma metabolome in obese subjects without the metabolic syndrome (MetS) to normal-weight subjects without MetS, as well as to obese subjects with MetS.

DESIGN: Cross-sectional.

SETTING: Two academic centers in Sweden.

PARTICIPANTS: Three population-based samples (EpiHealth, n=2342, SCAPIS-Uppsala, n=4985 and SCAPIS-Malmö, n=3978) in which individuals were divided into groups according to their BMI and presence/absence of MetS (NCEP/consensus criteria).

INTERVENTION: None.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: 791 annotated endogenous metabolites measured by ultra-performance liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry.

RESULTS: We observed major differences in metabolite profiles (427 metabolites) between obese (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m 2) and normal-weight (BMI < 25 kg/m 2) subjects without MetS after adjustment for major life-style factors. Pathway enrichment analysis highlighted branch-chained and aromatic amino acid synthesis/metabolism, aminoacyl-tRNA biosynthesis and sphingolipid metabolism. The same pathways, and similar metabolites, were also highlighted when obese subjects with and without MetS were compared despite adjustment for BMI and waist circumference, or when the metabolites were related to BMI and number of MetS components in a continuous fashion. Similar metabolites and pathways were also related to insulin sensitivity (Matsuda index) in a separate study (POEM, n=501).

CONCLUSION: Our data suggest a graded derangement of the circulating metabolite profile from lean to obese to the metabolic syndrome, in particular for metabolites involved in amino acid synthesis/metabolism and sphingolipid metabolism. Insulin resistance is a plausible mediator of this gradual metabolic deterioration.

BACKGROUND: End-stage renal disease is associated with a high risk of cardiovascular events. It is unknown, however, whether mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction is causally related to coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke.

METHODS: Observational analyses were conducted using individual-level data from 4 population data sources (Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, EPIC-CVD [European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Cardiovascular Disease Study], Million Veteran Program, and UK Biobank), comprising 648 135 participants with no history of cardiovascular disease or diabetes at baseline, yielding 42 858 and 15 693 incident CHD and stroke events, respectively, during 6.8 million person-years of follow-up. Using a genetic risk score of 218 variants for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), we conducted Mendelian randomization analyses involving 413 718 participants (25 917 CHD and 8622 strokes) in EPIC-CVD, Million Veteran Program, and UK Biobank.

RESULTS: There were U-shaped observational associations of creatinine-based eGFR with CHD and stroke, with higher risk in participants with eGFR values <60 or >105 mL·min^-1·1.73 m^-2, compared with those with eGFR between 60 and 105 mL·min^-1·1.73 m^-2. Mendelian randomization analyses for CHD showed an association among participants with eGFR <60 mL·min^-1·1.73 m^-2, with a 14% (95% CI, 3%-27%) higher CHD risk per 5 mL·min^-1·1.73 m^-2 lower genetically predicted eGFR, but not for those with eGFR >105 mL·min^-1·1.73 m^-2. Results were not materially different after adjustment for factors associated with the eGFR genetic risk score, such as lipoprotein(a), triglycerides, hemoglobin A1c, and blood pressure. Mendelian randomization results for stroke were nonsignificant but broadly similar to those for CHD.

CONCLUSIONS: In people without manifest cardiovascular disease or diabetes, mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction is causally related to risk of CHD, highlighting the potential value of preventive approaches that preserve and modulate kidney function.